With 2012 over and 2013 rushing towards us, I'm reviewing the season of the top 50 ATP and WTA players, and notable others, and making an informed guess (quiet at the back) at what 2013 is likely to bring.
Time to consider the players ranked between 3 and 5 in the current rankings...
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#5 - David Ferrer (ESP)
Anybody writing the story of David Ferrer's career has a fine line to walk, because it can be hard to tell, depending on how you look at it, whether he is underrated or overrated. It goes without saying that he has had a career that a huge amount of his fellow players would kill for. He's spent a long time in the top 10 over the last several years, he's been in 4 Grand Slam semi-finals, he's been in the final of the World Tour Finals, and he's won a Masters 1000 title, and been in the final several other times. It's because of these achievements that you can see Ferrer as underrated, given how little publicity and respect these have tended to get - when the commentators refer to him at all, it's often a touch patronisingly, referring to his small stature, and his appetite for hard work, grinding opponents down, and fighting. He rarely earns respect for the underlying talent and drive that make all of this possible. And yet, he's world #5, but never been in a Grand Slam final, and at age 30, seems unlikely ever to do so. In that sense, people can see him as overrated, given that though world #5 and a very tricky opponent, the tennis world at large expect him to get out of the way when the big guns show up in the latter rounds. For what it's worth, my take on it is that he should be given credit and respect for what he has been able to do in the game, and if he isn't quite good enough to topple the Big 4 in the latter stages of big events, then there's no shame in that - neither can most players.
Ferrer spent almost the entire year in the fifth spot in the rankings, apart from brief stretches where he fell to sixth. Beginning with a win at the tournament in Auckland, he fell to Djokovic in the QFs in Australia, but added two more titles in Buenos Aires on the clay. An unexpected loss to Istomin in Indian Wells was followed up with a QF run in Miami, where he again lost to Djokovic. He lost to Bellucci in Monte Carlo, but then went on a run where he only lost to the very best - Nadal in Barcelona, Rome and Roland Garros, and Federer in Madrid. He won Den Bosch on grass and was stopped by Andy Murray in the Wimbledon QFs. He won Bastad, lost unexpectedly to Nishikori at the Olympics and Wawrinka in Cincinnati, but then made the US Open SF, where Djokovic once again proved too strong. A forgettable Asian stretch (losses to Lu and Benneteau) was forgotten, after winning Valencia and his first Masters 1000 title in Paris Bercy, beating newcomer Jerzy Janowicz in the final. At the WTFs he beat Del Potro and Tipsarevic, but lost to Federer, and his final act was to win the two singles rubbers in the Davis Cup Final, though Spain eventually lost 3-2 to the Czechs. With 7 titles in 2012, including a Masters 1000, 2 SFs and 2 QFs at the slams, it was Ferrer's best year - and this at age 30.
So what does 2013 have to offer him? It's hard to see him backing up this season in full or improving on it, so I expect his results to slip back a little bit - not out of the top 10, but perhaps ceding the #5 position in the rankings. With a game that relies on speed, the ability to hang in rallies, defend superbly and attack when circumstances allow, age is likely to hurt Ferrer's game more than perhaps those who have built their game around their height and power advantage. What more does he still want to get out of the game? How much desire will be left? Only he can know.
#4 - Rafael Nadal (ESP)
2012 was undoubtedly a year of two halves for Rafa. He started the year ranked 2, and remained there while actively playing, but wound up at 4 by the season end. Already guaranteed legend status in the game at the age of 26, Rafa would add a few other records to an already burgeoning list before injury struck and closed down his season very early.
The year started much as 2011 had gone, with a Grand Slam final appearance, at the Australian Open, which he lost to Novak Djokovic - making it three in a row - in a near-six-hour epic, Novak winning 7-5 in the 5th set. Even early on in the season, however, there were signs of the trouble to come. Rafa lost to Federer in the SFs of Indian Wells, and reached the SFs of Miami, only to hand Andy Murray the walkover, citing tendinitis in his left knee. This did only delay him a couple of weeks, and he was back to winning ways on the clay, winning his record 8th consecutive Monte Carlo title, and beating Djokovic in the final, reversing a series of 7 straight losses dating back to Indian Wells 2011. After winning the now-customary Barcelona title, he suffered a blip on the troubled smurf-turf of Madrid, losing to Verdasco in R3 and panning the surface in the most blistering terms. However, he restored equilibrium in Rome, adding a second win over Djokovic, and adding a third when he lifted his 7th Roland Garros weeks later, the most won by any one player since the tournament went International in 1925. It had been a triumphant reversal of his recent trend against the Serb.
Yet, behind the scenes, under the surface, trouble was already brewing. The QF loss to Kohlschreiber in Halle raised few eyebrows, but the R2 loss to Lukas Rosol in 5 sets sent shockwaves throughout the tennis world. Although he looked fine on the match court, speculation immediately started that there was a physical problem. In the weeks that followed, detail dripped out that knee problems were to blame, although the story seemed to change numerous times as to the nature of the issue. He withdrew from the Olympics, citing it as one of the saddest moments of his career, and then from US Open extremely early. At this point it seemed likely that his season was over, and though it took a while for this to be confirmed, he didn't pick up a racquet competitively for the rest of the year. A half-year of renewed hope was brought to a crashing halt by further injury concerns that seem a step-change in seriousness compared to previous episodes.
As for 2013, speculation is rife. Training was underway and expectation was that he would resume competitive play at the Abu Dhabi exhibition event, but this was stymied when he withdrew late in the day, due to a stomach virus. He shortly thereafter withdrew from the Australian Open citing the same problem, even though this event was still over 2 weeks away. The suggestion is that he would not be ready to play best of 5 matches without some tournament preparation and he would not be in a position to get any, so the best approach would be to come back on the South American clay. This may or may not make sense, according to taste, but what it has done is reignited speculation that all is still not well with the knees, and they're just not ready to say so yet. The Nadal camp is not the most forthcoming with the facts at its disposal, and there may yet be more to this story than we're currently being told.
In any case, the new plan is that he will return in the spring, and all eyes will be on whether he can hit the ground running and return to his peak form quickly - he will have little time to do so. The way things are unfolding, the only thing on his ranking soon will be his clay court points, and if he fails to defend a significant chunk of these, his ranking will plummet. Already likely to drop out of the top 4, the climb back could get that much steeper. For my part, I think Rafa can get back to his peak form, but I think it will be a slower process than in the past, and 2013 will be a year of slow rebuilding - he may not be part of the biggest conversations all year. As for the speculation that this is it - and he's actually done for good - while I think this is an understandable fear, given the unfolding events, I still think that's way too premature. I guess I won't believe that until I hear it from the horse's mouth, and I still think there's a couple more years in him, if he manages his schedule better than he has thus far in his career.
The year started much as 2011 had gone, with a Grand Slam final appearance, at the Australian Open, which he lost to Novak Djokovic - making it three in a row - in a near-six-hour epic, Novak winning 7-5 in the 5th set. Even early on in the season, however, there were signs of the trouble to come. Rafa lost to Federer in the SFs of Indian Wells, and reached the SFs of Miami, only to hand Andy Murray the walkover, citing tendinitis in his left knee. This did only delay him a couple of weeks, and he was back to winning ways on the clay, winning his record 8th consecutive Monte Carlo title, and beating Djokovic in the final, reversing a series of 7 straight losses dating back to Indian Wells 2011. After winning the now-customary Barcelona title, he suffered a blip on the troubled smurf-turf of Madrid, losing to Verdasco in R3 and panning the surface in the most blistering terms. However, he restored equilibrium in Rome, adding a second win over Djokovic, and adding a third when he lifted his 7th Roland Garros weeks later, the most won by any one player since the tournament went International in 1925. It had been a triumphant reversal of his recent trend against the Serb.
Yet, behind the scenes, under the surface, trouble was already brewing. The QF loss to Kohlschreiber in Halle raised few eyebrows, but the R2 loss to Lukas Rosol in 5 sets sent shockwaves throughout the tennis world. Although he looked fine on the match court, speculation immediately started that there was a physical problem. In the weeks that followed, detail dripped out that knee problems were to blame, although the story seemed to change numerous times as to the nature of the issue. He withdrew from the Olympics, citing it as one of the saddest moments of his career, and then from US Open extremely early. At this point it seemed likely that his season was over, and though it took a while for this to be confirmed, he didn't pick up a racquet competitively for the rest of the year. A half-year of renewed hope was brought to a crashing halt by further injury concerns that seem a step-change in seriousness compared to previous episodes.
As for 2013, speculation is rife. Training was underway and expectation was that he would resume competitive play at the Abu Dhabi exhibition event, but this was stymied when he withdrew late in the day, due to a stomach virus. He shortly thereafter withdrew from the Australian Open citing the same problem, even though this event was still over 2 weeks away. The suggestion is that he would not be ready to play best of 5 matches without some tournament preparation and he would not be in a position to get any, so the best approach would be to come back on the South American clay. This may or may not make sense, according to taste, but what it has done is reignited speculation that all is still not well with the knees, and they're just not ready to say so yet. The Nadal camp is not the most forthcoming with the facts at its disposal, and there may yet be more to this story than we're currently being told.
In any case, the new plan is that he will return in the spring, and all eyes will be on whether he can hit the ground running and return to his peak form quickly - he will have little time to do so. The way things are unfolding, the only thing on his ranking soon will be his clay court points, and if he fails to defend a significant chunk of these, his ranking will plummet. Already likely to drop out of the top 4, the climb back could get that much steeper. For my part, I think Rafa can get back to his peak form, but I think it will be a slower process than in the past, and 2013 will be a year of slow rebuilding - he may not be part of the biggest conversations all year. As for the speculation that this is it - and he's actually done for good - while I think this is an understandable fear, given the unfolding events, I still think that's way too premature. I guess I won't believe that until I hear it from the horse's mouth, and I still think there's a couple more years in him, if he manages his schedule better than he has thus far in his career.
#3 - Andy Murray (GBR)
This was the year when it all changed. This was the year when the question was answered. This was the year when doubt was finally silenced, and the year that Great Britain's wait ended. Yes, that silly, ever-increasing number thrown in his face week-in, week-out for years, can finally be consigned to the ash-heap of history where it belongs. Andy Murray, Great Britain from Dunblane, Scotland, won his first Grand Slam, fulfilling the promise he showed from a young age, and the burdensome expectations of a nation and a tennis punditry that rarely failed to insist it should happen, and simultaneously explain why it wouldn't.
It all started with the decision to hire Ivan Lendl, which will go down in history as one of the most prescient picks ever, whatever comes next. Andy needed a coach to fine-tune his game. More, he needed someone who'd been where he was, on the cusp of glory but unable to touch it. He needed someone who understood what that felt like - and what it felt like when glory was finally in his grasp - and how to go from the one to the other.
They started work in Australia in 2012 and after a bumpy start, Andy lifted the Brisbane title immediately. He looked imperious in Melbourne against an admittedly pretty comfortable draw, until running into Djokovic in the SFs. Andy lost in 5 sets, but it was a war. A 5 hour, no prisoners taken, no quarter given, war. In the fifth, Novak was comfortably ahead and the thing looked done, but Andy fought back, and had break points to leave him serving for the match. He failed to convert and Novak broke to win. Djokovic would go on to even greater feats in the final, while Andy was left to rue the loss - though all involved were comfortable that he had left it all out on the court.
A turbulent period followed. He reached the final in Dubai, beating Berdych and Djokovic but losing to Federer, but then threw in an inexplicable 64 62 loss to Guillermo Garcia-Lopez in Indian Wells in the first match. GGL is a handy player and he played well, but this was odd, and confirmed a pattern of the last few years in Indian Wells, where Andy has been poor. He bounced back to reach the final of Miami, helped by 2 walkovers, one of which was Rafa in the SF. There he lost to Djokovic. The clay season was forgettable, with losses to Berdych in Monte Carlo, Raonic in Barcelona, and Gasquet in Rome. Andy made the choice to skip Madrid and given the troublesome nature of that event in 2012, I doubt he regretted it for a moment. Roland Garros was unremarkable also, dropping in the QFs to David Ferrer in 4 hard-fought sets. Then on the grass, he lost his first match to Nicolas Mahut in a final set tiebreak. Again, Mahut is a good player, especially on grass, but this was unexpected.
At this stage, the knives were beginning to come out for the Murray-Lendl partnership. Born in optimism and seeming to bear early fruit in Australia and Dubai, the results had dried up a bit, and the punditocracy was beginning to question whether Lendl, inexperienced as a coach, was leading Murray into confusion rather than clarity. Some were predicting the partnership was nearing its expiration date. Seldom have events proved them so spectacularly wrong.
Andy's Wimbledon draw was tricky. Opening against Davydenko was tougher on paper than in reality, the veteran Russian no lover of the turf. But Karlovic is always a risky proposition, and then Baghdatis, who had a win over Andy before at Wimbledon. Cilic followed, and then David Ferrer, who beat Andy at Roland Garros. This was grass, though, and while Ferrer was more competent on the surface than he's given credit for, having won titles on grass in the Netherlands, it was still advantage Andy, and he battled through 4 very tough sets to get the win. Tsonga, who came through the bottom quarter after Rafa's loss, awaited, but Andy was able to overcome the occasion and the opponent, and became the first British male to contest the Wimbledon singles final since 1938. Federer lay in wait, and though Andy started brightly, and played much better than in his 3 previous Slam finals, Roger rolled back the years with some of his best grass court tennis, and denied Andy in 4 sets. Roger lifted the title but Andy won some hearts at least, with an emotional, choked-up post-match speech, telling us that he was getting closer.
Closer he was, perhaps closer than even he realised. It's always darkest just before dawn, they say. The days following his fourth Slam final defeat were bleak ones. He now shared with Lendl the record of losing his first 4 slam finals. No man had lost his first 5. In the meantime, Andy had to get up off the canvas quickly, as he would be back on the Wimbledon lawns in short order for the Olympics, back in the UK for the first time since 1948. Olympic tennis has gone from strength to strength in terms of the desirability of winning a medal among the players, and this year promised to be the most competitive since it returned as a full medal sport in 1988. Andy was looking for Gold - team GB had gone on a tear after a slow start, and Andy felt, and wanted to add to, the momentum. He breezed through to the SF with one set dropped, and then dismissed Novak Djokovic in straight sets to reach the Gold Medal Match. Federer once again lay in wait, 28 days after breaking his heart on this very court. Yet, in a storyline the script-writers would never dream of writing, knowing they'd never get away with it, Andy handed Roger a straight sets defeat on Centre Court for the loss of 7 games. No doubt, Roger was jaded from his epic 19-17 win over Del Potro in the SFs, but Andy found the perfect antidote to a Wimbledon final loss, and finally he had a big title. Not a Grand Slam, something different, something that doesn't fit comfortably into the delineated annual tennis schedule, but something special nonetheless.
No time to celebrate, as ATP schedules wait for no man. The quicker than usual transition to hardcourt bothered Andy's bothersome left knee, and he pulled out of Canada after winning one match, then lost to Chardy in R3 in Cincy. He arrived in New York a bit jaded, and didn't seem to be handling the heat well in his first match against Bogomolov. Things became torrid in R3 when, on another hot day, he needed deep reserves of fight to overcome a lively Feliciano Lopez. A masterclass against Raonic under the lights followed, but it was back to the wars in the QF, where Cilic led 63 51 before choking magnificently. The SF was played under very tricky windy conditions. Berdych, who had despatched Federer with surprising ease in the QF, lurked. He's a player who Andy struggles against - when Berdych's flat, hard hitting is on song, he is deadly. However, the wind stymied Berdych, and Andy was able to get it done, surviving a late challenge from the Czech. Another final, then, and the spectre of surpassing Lendl's "first 4 finals lost" record loomed large. Djokovic was the opponent, and the wind was the third player on court in yet another Monday final. Andy went two sets up, handling the conditions better, but then hit the wall as Djokovic resurged and the wind calmed, and at 2 sets all the situation looked desperate. However, there was one more twist in store, as Andy ran out to a 3-0 double break lead,Djokovic beginning to physically wilt. Though broken once, Andy rebroke to restore the 2 break advantage, and, looking calm, stepped up to the line and served out for his first Grand Slam title.
Relief was the overriding emotion, he said, finally getting that monkey of history, of expectation, of self-imposed pressure off his back. He walked like a man for the first time able to stand tall. It took some time to sink in, and it needed some adjustment. The Lendl partnership had spectacularly borne fruit - but what next? Not to mention the rest of the season to be played. Andy headed out to Asia as scheduled but success was a bit elusive. He lost to Raonic in the SFs in Tokyo, and to Novak in the Shanghai final, having had 5 match points. He slumped to newcomer Jerzy Janowicz indoors in Paris, and ended the year at the World Tour Finals, beating Berdych and Tsonga, but losing to Djokovic in the RR and then Federer in the SFs.
So what is next? Well, the partnership with Lendl seems to be one they're both happy to talk about in the long term. They've worked hard together in the off-season for a sustained block for the first time, and Andy's sights are set on more slams and the #1 ranking. Can he do it? My prediction is that there's another slam coming - possibly in Australia, possibly at Wimbledon, but the #1 ranking will remain out of reach. Andy is, at times, impressively inconsistent, and to get to #1 these days, you need consistency, and you need at least good results on clay, if not great. These two factors lead me to think Andy will struggle to ascend the rankings mountain to the very top, but it's going to be fun watching him try.
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