What will 2013 Bring? Part 1 - ATP #41-50

With 2012 over and 2013 rushing towards us, I'm reviewing the season of the top 50 ATP and WTA players, and notable others, and making an informed guess (quiet at the back) at what 2013 is likely to bring.

We begin our journey with the ATP #41-50

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#50 - Albert Ramos (ESP)

2012 was a solid year for the Spanish leftie, consolidating the rankings gains of 2011.  He started the year at 66 and ended at 50, reaching a high of 38 in the process.  He showed he can live at tour level, if not necessarily excel.  To improve in 2013 he must do better on hardcourts than the 9-15 he posted in 2012, and some Grand Slam wins wouldn't go amiss either - R1, R1, R1, R2 was the inauspicious outcome of 2012's efforts, and to go higher, this must improve.  I suspect 2013 will wind up similar to 2012; he may crack the top 40 and stay there, but top 20 looks like an unrealistic ambition for the Barcelona native on current evidence.

#49 - Marinko Matosevic (AUS)

The new #1 Aussie had a stand-out year in 2012, his coach commenting that he'd done some growing up and improve his work ethic and attitude. It paid dividends.  Having started the year ranked 203, the improvement is self-evident.  A tour final in Delray Beach was a just reward for beating the likes of Karlovic and Gulbis, and won a notable scalp against Gasquet in Eastbourne.  Mixing challengers with main draw events, he was consistent enough to reach a high of 47.  The problem is going to be backing this up in 2013 - temperamentally, there's a danger that after a career year, he might rest on his laurels a bit and slide back down towards the top 100 exit chute, particularly if he fails to defend most of his Delray points, which constitute about 30% of his total rankings.  With no wins at Slams in 2012, he has plenty of scope to take some pressure off, but performing in Melbourne at home may be asking too much.  If he can get on another roll at some smaller events or win a couple of rounds at a Slam he could hang around the top 50, but I suspect a slide down to 70 or 80 is more likely.

#48 - Grigor Dimitrov (BUL)

It already feels like the Bulgarian Babe has been around forever, but he's just 21.  Now at a career high ranking of 48, having started 2012 at 76, progress might be defined as steady rather than spectacular - the problem is that so much has been expected of him for so long that steady progress seems a little disappointing in some ways.  With 3 tour SFs to his name, he has started to impact the lower tournaments, but with no better than a R2 at any slam in 2012, this is where he must start to do some damage if he wishes to live up to the tiresome comparisons that have dogged him for much too long already. He has bags of talent but doesn't always seem to know what to do with it - court smarts and understanding how best he can win his points seems lacking too often, but he is still young, and has time to figure these things out.  2013 could be a breakthrough year for him, although I suspect more likely is steady progress will continue.  I'd predict a top 25 finish for him in 2013 with at least one ATP final or win to his name.  If he does ignite, it may come when we least expect it.  These things don't follow a schedule.

#47 - Benoit Paire (FRA)

Even for a French player, Benoit is wacky.  You never know what he will do next.  Jaw-dropping brilliance and mind-bending awfulness can appear from one point to the next, from one shot to the next.  Look in a dictionary for 'unpredictable' and his photo is next to it.  Benoit has kicked on from the 95 he started the year at, with a useful R3 at Wimbledon and a F in Belgrade, SF in Den Bosch to his name - useful results on different surfaces.  When he focuses he can be devastating, but the slightest thing can destroy his focus - for good.  This is something he must improve on in 2013 if he wants to go higher - players know him better now, and know his concentration can be destroyed easily, and some will have no scruples at taking advantage of this. He also isn't necessarily the best fighter - when down in a match, he can be too keen to throw in the towel mentally, another area for him to work on.  Unless he can show major improvements in these facets, I fear Paire is unlikely to go much higher than 35 or 40 in the rankings.  At the expense of some of his unpredictable charm, he must gain consistency to go much further, or settle for less as too many French players have done.

#46 - David Goffin (BEL)

The diminutive (by tennis standards) Belgian was a minor revelation, commencing 2012 at 174, and hitting a high of 42 before dropping back slightly to end the year at 46.  A talented 22 year old with a slight frame and a boyish aspect, Goffin nevertheless provided a memorable match with Federer at Roland Garros in the fourth round, having qualified for the event, before losing in 4 sets and sharing a touching moment with his idol.  That pushed him into the top 100, which he admirably backed up with a R3 at Wimbledon.  The rest of the year was solid enough, with a challenger win and QFs in Winston-Salem and Valencia.  In 2013 comes the dreaded sophomore year, though, where backing up the previous season can be enough of a challenger without even worrying about improving further.  Goffin has bags of ability but might be held back by his slight stature - ballbashing is unlikely to be his tactic of choice, or even much of an option.  If he's working hard right now on his fitness and strength, 2013 could be another good year and cracking the top 30 is not out of the question.  If he's not, or if the challenge of pushing on is adding pressure, we could see a confidence tailspin.  I suspect he will push on, though, and hopefully will give us some more fun matches in the coming year.

#45 - Fabio Fognini (ITA)

Tennis is unfairly derided sometimes as lacking in characters.  These malcontents have never seen Fabio Fognini, who has almost too much character on court for his own good sometimes.  At 25, the Italian should be in the prime of his career, though his 2012 was less turbulent than his persona might imply - he started the season at 48 and ended at 45, with a low of 68 and a high of 44.  Steady as she goes, then, yet a bit disappointing, perhaps.  Fabio can get very hot, and when he does, his play is shockingly good.  But it seems to burn his candle at both ends, and is unsustainable for even a three set match, never mind a five setter, which means his level of play can veer wildly from disinterested to amazing over the course of 20 minutes.  He reached his first 2 tour finals in 2012 but lost them both, and is also prone to niggly injuries which lead to unexpectedly bad losses.  His year was lacking in notable scalps, too.  2013 should be a big year for Fognini if he can stay injury free and motivation is high - 2012 was in many ways a year of little progress - ATP finals aside - it would be a shame for him if 2013 was similarly slim pickings.  His career high is 32 and he is good enough to be top 30 - if the voices inside his head will let him.

#44 - Nikolay Davydenko (RUS)

Are we witnessing the last season of the Russian workhorse?  It would be easy to dismiss Kolya as a dour, uninspiring player, lacking in warmth and personality for the fans to latch onto - a Lendl without the slam success perhaps.  This would seriously misread Davydenko, who is much funnier and more personable than at first reading, but perhaps lacks the strong English and dashing looks that the marketers like to think the fans only care about.  A hard worker, yes, who owes much to that hard work, but talented too - few players have ever been as capable at taking the ball as early as he could in his prime.  Alas, his prime is receding in the distance.  Over 30, and a lot of miles in those whippet-like legs, 2012 was a grim year for the former top 10 mainstay.  If 2011 was the annus horribilis, then 2012 didn't bring the mirabilis he might have hoped for.  Starting the season at 41, he has remain pretty static all year, no higher than 30, no lower than 56.  The halcyon days seem to be over, tennis has moved on and left him behind.  He will keep playing until he's no longer able to get into ATP events, but unless he starts 2013 strong, that might come sooner rather than later - a good chunk of his points drop off before Roland Garros.  My prediction that he drops out of the top 50 and ultimately calls time in St Petersburg or Moscow in the fall, and when he does, he will be missed by many tennis fans.

#43 - Denis Istomin (UZB)

The Uzbek had a good 2012, rising from 73 in January to 33 in August, before tailing off to 43 in the rankings by year end.  A player who is solid on all surfaces except clay, hits a hard ball, has no astonishing strengths but no glaring weaknesses either, and a serviceable all-court game to boot, Istomin is capable of throwing in a few surprises here and there.  Highlights of 2012 must be the win over Ferrer in Indian Wells, before losing to Delpo in a tough 3 setter in R4, and a R4 run at Wimbledon, where it took a spirited effort from Mikhail Youzhny to stop him in 5 sets and 4 1/4 hours.  Since the R3 at the Olympics, it was a pretty mediocre run to the end of 2012.  Istomin has perhaps hit his plateau and struggles to compete consistently against the other top 50 guys week in, week out.  He can get on a decent run here or there, but backing it up might be an issue.  He seems to make a decent living as a perennial risky floater,but in 2013, as it was in 2012, I feel that may be all he is destined for.

#42 - Pablo Andujar (ESP)

The Spanish just keep churning them out like a tennis beefcake factory.  Fresh off the production line in 2011 was Pablo Andujar, who established himself at or around the top 50 mark.  In 2012 there was improvement, albeit modest, with a high of 33 achieved before dropping back to 42.  With a title win on his beloved clay in Casablanca, defending the same title won in 2011, Andujar has kept up his level, and improved his results on hardcourt, a couple of R16 at Masters 1000 level doing him no harm there.  Pablo won 8 matches on hard in 2012, which is a continuation on the improvements of 2011, before which his wins on surfaces other than clay were countable on one hand.  At 26 Andujar is in his physical prime, and some good results on clay could see him crack the top 30 in 2013, but his lack of real affinity for other surfaces is likely to remain a limiting factor.  It's too difficult to be a one surface player now - especially if that surface is clay, whose presence has slowly continued to decline.  For Andujar, this may be as good as it gets?

#41 - Jarkko Nieminen (FIN)

The likeable Finn has been around forever, getting knocked down and getting back up again, often entertaining, occasionally spectacular - and sometimes for the wrong reasons.  Was he haunted by having Gasquet on the ropes in Bangkok SFs, a double break up in the second set, before being inhabited by the ghost of chokes past, present and future?  He lost the set, and the next, and walked off court a man who knew it wasn't his opponent that beat him.  All things considered, though, it was one of Jarkko's better years, ending it at 41 having started it at 77, and finally adding a second career title, right back in January in Sydney, which must make 2012 something of a career highlight.  Nieminen remains a hard worker on and off the court, but he's now the wrong side of 30 and the better days are very likely behind him.  In a career that has seen his ranking bounce around quite a bit in his 12 years as a pro, I suspect 2013 will see it take another downturn, especially if all does not go well defending his points in Sydney.  It's not getting any easier for him.