With 2012 over and 2013 rushing towards us, I'm reviewing the season of the top 50 ATP and WTA players, and notable others, and making an informed guess (quiet at the back) at what 2013 is likely to bring.
Next stop is the players ranked between 11 and 20 in the current rankings...
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#20 - Phillip Kohlschreiber (GER)
Kohli started 2012 ranked 43, ended it ranked 20, and had a career high of 16 back in July. He booked a Wimbledon QF, beating Nadal-killa Rosol en route with some superb tennis, won a title in Munich and reached another final in Kitzbuhel. Yet his participation in Kitzbuhel on clay right on the eve of the Olympics raised some eyebrows, which disappeared in peoples' hairlines when he subsequently withdrew from the Olympics at the last minute, citing a nagging leg injury, even though he had played right through to the final. This ultimately led to a dispute with the German tennis authorities and Kohlschreiber declining further Davis Cup participation as a result. At this stage of his career, Phillip is unlikely to be knocking on any top 10 doors - if he wanted to try, some better Masters 1000 results to go with his good year at the slams would be a good starting point. However, I suspect Herr Kohlschreiber will hang around between 20 and 35 in the rankings in 2013. At 29, it maybe feels too late to expect something bigger.
#19 - Kei Nishikori (JPN)
It feels like Kei Nishikori has been around forever. After announcing himself as an 18 year old, winning his first tour title at Delray Beach, beating James Blake in the final, Kei had a couple of somewhat fallow years, with injury and other struggles keeping him back. In 2011 he began to climb up the rankings steadily and he started 2012 ranked 25. He ended 2012 ranked 19, with a career high of 15 coming off the back off becoming the first Japanese winner of their home tournament in Tokyo, a tremendous achievement. He also impressed back in Australia, with a win over Tsonga en route to the QF, where he fell to Andy Murray. In 2013 Kei is definitely capable of pushing towards the top 10. He likes a good fight and he is mentally tough enough to win his share of them. His game is strong, and he is showing greater willingness to take the ball on, especially down the line off both wings. He is a great mover on the court and is very tough to put the ball past. The issue, as it has been all along, is his conditioning and fitness. He has tended to look a bit fragile in the past but he has been working hard in this area. He does, however seem more prone to injury than most - 2012 saw another 2 month break between Barcelona and Wimbledon, and a nagging leg injury bothered him in the Asian swing, so he needs a full, strong season and a sensible schedule. If that works out for him, he could prove a big handful this coming season.
#18 - Alexandr Dolgopolov (UKR)
2012 was a turbulent year for Dolgo - but why would you expect anything different? With an unorthodox style that refuses to fit the mould, predictability is never likely to be on the menu. Indeed, over half Dolgopolov's 2012 points come from just 4 events - a QF in the Madrid 1000, winning Washington, reaching the final in Valencia, and the final in Brisbane. The rest of the year was fairly unremarkable. Starting the year at 15 and ending it at 18, credit is due to the Ukrainian for holding his position in the pecking order, although he hasn't made any further advances - he briefly hit a career high of 13 back in January following the Brisbane final but top 10 feels quite a mountain climb away. With continued problems from Gilbert's Syndrome, a liver condition that can cause him severe fatigue, and a split from long-time coach Jack Reader, off-court wasn't lacking in drama, either. Given his limitations - health, and unorthodox skills that are too inconsistent to hurt the best for long enough, I can't see him climbing higher than he has already, unless he goes on a major tear at a high ranking event. He may hold his own in the top 20 in 2013 but that's about the best I would expect - there's no sense that he knows how to kick on further.
#17 - Stanislas Wawrinka (SUI)
Stan the Man clearly started 2012 as he meant to finish it - ranked 17. Another solid, if unspectacular year for the man who dutifully carries the burden of being called the Swiss #2. A couple slam fourth rounds, a SF in Cincy, QF Monte Carlo, and a few more SFs at the lower levels round out his year - rarely performed terribly, but when the bigger guns showed up, he vacated the field. He had Federer on the ropes in Shanghai but blew his chance, lost the second set, and then the third at love - everyone, including him it seems, knew the moment had gone. We've seen similar against Nole - it's a bit of a theme for Wawrinka, who has never been quite able to consistently master holding his nerve when the stakes are highest. It's a shame, because his backhand is a stunning shot, a more stylish one-hander than his fellow countryman. Stan spent time in the top 10 a few years back but it does feel like 11-20 is more his speed, and all other things being equal, I suspect he'll hang around there in 2013 too. He makes a great living, hanging in the shadow of Federer, and at this point in his career, I suspect he's made his peace with that not being likely to change, even if he is a bit more critical of Roger than in times past.
#16 - Gilles Simon (FRA)
Gillou is another player who largely held his own in 2012 compared to 2011, but made no great leap forward. Starting the year ranked 12, he ended at 16, and never fell below 20. His ranking mainly held up due to SFs at the 1000s in Paris and Monte Carlo, and a tour title in Bucharest. Simon has not added much to his game as the years have gone by - content to rally, junkball, and occasionally up the attack as a surprise tactic, players know what they will get from him - they will have to work hard, perhaps, but he can be hit through eventually. With his slight build and average height, Gilles was never going to be a powerhouse, anyway. The French players have enjoyed colonising the spots between 11 and 20 in the past several years, and Simon seems another one who is good enough to get that high but not consistently higher, spell in the top 10 in 2009 notwithstanding. 'Expect more of the same' is a bit of a boring prediction, but it's all I have to work with here.
#15 - Marin Cilic (CRO)
What's the deal with this guy, anyway? He came along several years ago, looked like a worthy successor to the likes of Ivanisevic and Ljubicic and Ancic, got to #9 in 2010, but it's felt like he's stalled for the last few years now. He began 2012 at 21 and improved to 15 over the year, but at 24, I think many expected him to have done a bit more by now, Coach Bob Brett has said Cilic would take a few years to fully come into his own - but that was a few years ago now. So is this it? If so, I think many would be disappointed - it seems like he is capable of more than this. Then again, given his choke against Murray in the US Open QF, leading a set and *5-1, perhaps he's not destined to do more than make the odd appearance in these big matches and ensure that bigger names book their appointed spots in the semis and the finals. Who knows. In any case, 2012 was hardly bad for Marin - 2 titles - Umag and Queens (the beneficiary of Nalbandian's legendary kick that was felt around the world), other SFs and QFs. But, to harp on a theme, it feels like it should be better. Will 2013 prove to be? I'd like to predict so, but I wouldn't do so with any confidence. I've done so before with him, and once bitten, twice shy.
#14 - John Isner (USA)
Although Big John started ranked 18, he quickly got up to the top 10 and spent most of the season at or around that mark, with a high of 9. A solid year, with a notable scalping of Roger Federer in Davis Cup, 2 more tour titles, and a final in Indian Wells. However, he had a poor year in the slams with R3 the best mark. Given his R2 exit at Roland Garros in an 18-16 fifth set reversal to Paul-Henri Mathieu, it's probably best to forget quickly the silly talk back in April that had Isner winning the clay court Grand Slam. Indeed, Isner rolling up flat at the Slams after performing relatively well on the tour was a recurring theme in 2012, and his scheduling is something he needs to sort out for the coming season, if he wishes to kick on into the top 10. There's also just a feeling that, for all the improvements, his backhand is still a bit too flaky, and if he finds himself up against a good returner, who can get a read on the serve, then he's in a lot of trouble. I can see Isner spending more time in the top 10 next year, but I'm still not sure he's a mainstay.
#13 - Milos Raonic (CAN)
After bursting onto the scene in a big way in early 2011, Milos had a lot to prove, and a lot to defend, in 2012. That he was able to do so suggests he is one of the game's ones to watch in the next couple of years. Starting 2012 at 31, he ended at a career high of 13, having defending his title in San Jose, added one in Chennai, and recorded wins over Tipsarevic, Berdych, and Murray twice throughout the season. The serve is massive, the ground game is better than you might expect, and getting better, and he's showing more willingness to get up the court behind a strong play and finish at the net. The concern is that he can be a bit brittle mentally - when big moments come, he can get very tight and make poor tactical decisions. Still, he is only 21, and has gained a lot of experience over the last two seasons. In 2013, it's time to take the next step, crack the top 10, and dare the rest to displace him. This should be achievable, and the rest will struggle to dislodge him, I believe.
#12 - Juan Monaco (ARG)
Pico finally cracked a career milestone in 2012, breaking into the top 10 for a while. This looked pretty unlikely after he fell and injured his ankle in Monte Carlo, but he was able to recover quickly and push on, finally achieving the mark in July. He started the year at 26 and ended at 12, so by any standards, it was a very good year for the Argentinian. A SF in Miami, R16 at Roland Garros, a win at the 500 in Hamburg, and more titles in Kuala Lumpur, Houston and Vina del Mar make this a career year for the 28 year old - one I suspect he will struggle to repeat in 2013. Alas, I expect the likeable workhorse to side back towards 20 as the season progresses - wouldn't mind being proved wrong though.
#11 - Nicolas Almagro (ESP)
Nico has had a remarkably consistent year, beginning 2012 ranked 10, and ending it at 11. He posted a QF at Roland Garros, a SF in Hamburg, and won titles in Nice and Sao Paulo. Beyond that, he was solid everywhere, posting only 1 R1 or equivalent loss, in Tokyo. Better on hardcourt than he used to be, yet Almagro has struggled to make an significant step up, and I'm reluctant to predict one at this stage - he seems happiest on the Golden Swing in South America, does averagely well at the spring clay events in Europe, and again after Wimbledon, but he is too mentally brittle to dominate these event like he should. I suspect he will slip back slightly in 2013, but look to him to add a few more clay titles and give some top guys a short headache here and there, before making his own head hurt more. It's what he does best.
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