With 2012 over and 2013 rushing towards us, I'm reviewing the season of the top 50 ATP and WTA players, and notable others, and making an informed guess (quiet at the back) at what 2013 is likely to bring.
Time to consider the players ranked between 6 and 10 in the current rankings...
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10 - Richard Gasquet (FRA)
A year of good progress for the mercurial Frenchman. Starting 2012 at 19, he ended at 10 - perhaps, at 26, Richard has realised he has been wasting his talents? Then again, he seems shy of the limelight and found the pressure of living up to a top 10 billing to be too much, reverting to the role of spear-carrier in the French attack force. He has, however, posted a worthy season, with R16 performances at all 4 slams, a final at the 1000 is Toronto, a title in Bangkok and a SF in Basel. He has performed consistently all year under the tutelage of Ricardo Piatti and Sebastien Grosjean. However, I do not expect him to kick on higher into the top 10 - there have been too many predictions that he is finally ready to embrace the highest echelon of the game, and each time, these predictions have been hollow. I still believe he is more comfortable when he is not the Frenchman expected to be pushing for the slams, and something in him will continue to keep him his own worst enemy.
#9 - Janko Tipsarevic (SRB)
Having crept into the top 10 at the end of 2011, Janko has held the spot for the entire season, spending most of it ranked 9, creeping up to 8 for a spell mid-year before returning. The Serb was relatively disappointing at the slams, epic QF loss to David Ferrer at the US Open aside, however he posted two Masters 1000 SFs, in Toronto and Madrid, Won the Stuttgart tournament, and was runner up in Gstaad and Chennai. QF or better at six additional tournaments speaks of a very consistent year, impressively backing up his top 10 credentials. My instincts suggest he will continue to be dangerous in 2013, although perhaps from just outside the top 10, rather than just inside it. I struggle to see Janko kicking on higher than his best of 8, in any case - he can be very dangerous in "occasion" matches but can be vulnerable to odd losses to players he should handily beat. If he is going to push higher, it probably has to be now - time is not on his side.
#8 - Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (FRA)
Jo set up camp in the top 10 of the ATP rankings in mid 2011, and he hasn't left since. Reaching a high of 5 in mid 2012, he has drifted slowly down to 8 throughout the rest of the year - an early loss to Klizan at the US Open not helping matters there. Still, he posted a SF at Wimbledon, losing relatively comfortably to Andy Murray, and a QF at Roland Garros, where he had Novak Djokovic well and truly on the ropes before letting the wily Serb off the hook. No better than QF a Masters 1000 level, at least he made 5 of them, and he added titles in Metz and Doha, as well as finals in Stockholm and Beijing. It's all very worthy, but somehow the mercurial warrior who slashed his way to the Aussie Open final in 2008 seems to have his sword blunted a little bit. A promising H2H vs Djokovic in the early goings has been turned right around, and I fear the self-belief against the Big 4 is not as strong as it needs to be. To crack open that little club requires a lot of self-assurance that you belong there, and as good as he is, I don't think Jo has that. He has become more of a baseliner as his career has developed, and this has probably made him a more consistent player, but also a slightly less unpredictable, exciting specimen. Still, watching Jo in full flow on a grass court is a modern tennis treat. I can't predict he will be the guy to threaten the hegemony of the top 4, but I think he'll provide us with another entertaining, close-but-no-cigar sort of a year.
#7 - Juan Martin Del Potro (ARG)
It has been a long...LONG...road back for Delpo. Losing most of the 2010 season to a right arm injury, the progression up the rankings since his return in 2011 has seemed at times a little lacklustre. However, in 2012 he quickly regained the top 10, and ended the season at 7. Perhaps more importantly, there has been a growing sense that his game and his belief is returning to the levels he found in 2009, when he lifted that maiden Grand Slam - and now it seems at least possible that he can add to that solo outing.
Del Potro vs Federer is one of the tales of 2012 - which started with a convincing Federer win in the QF of the Australian Open, and another soon after in the Rotterdam final. Following a title in Marseille, Delpo fell again to the Fed in Dubai in the SFs, but a close 76 76 loss for the Argentinian suggested he was getting more comfortable in these highest matchups. He lost to Roger again in Indian Wells, fell to Berdych in the SF of Madrid in 2 tiebreaks, but at Roland Garros in the QF, Delpo went two sets up on Federer before a heavy schedule and some battles en route to that round, including revenge on Berdych, saw the big man run out of gas, and lose the next three sets pretty quickly. Still, it was another sign of progress. At Wimbledon, Delpo finally showed some signs of coming to grips with the green, falling to Ferrer in R4. However, at the Olympics 4 weeks later, the Argentinian did his nation proud, battling to a 36 76 1917 loss against, AGAIN, Federer, but rebounding brilliantly to dismiss Novak Djokovic 75 64 and capture the Bronze in mens singles. Novak found some handy revenge in the US Open QF, though, beating Delpo in straight sets. Undeterred, Juan Martin finished the season strongly, with a win in Vienna, and then a long-awaited win over Roger Federer in the final in Basel, to lift that title too. He beat Roger again at the O2 arena in the World Tour Finals RR stages, before falling to Djokovic in 3 sets in the SF.
Del Potro, and indeed his supporters, have to be heartened by the way 2012 unfolded, and he must take into 2013 the growing belief that he has the tools smash open the Big 4 and force the tennisocracy to coin a new term for the world's best group of players. Out of all the players, Delpo is the most likely to do so - he's done it before, and was unable to reap the benefit, cruelly stopped by injury almost immediately. Maybe 2013 will be kinder to him than 2010 was in that regard. His forehand is massive, yet a safer shot than you might expect, with more spin and less tendency to aim for the line than some of his rivals. The backhand is a strong backup, and he moves surprisingly well for a big man. The serve is still not as effective as it could be, for his height, but at least it rarely hampers him. I do not predict a Grand Slam for Delpo in the coming season, though I wouldn't be stunned if he pulled one off, but I suspect he will be deep in the second week nearly every time, and anyone in his quarter of the draw will do well not to assume the SF berth is theirs. They will have to earn it the hardest way. Also, look out for him to really make a challenge on the grass at Wimbledon. It felt like the big man put the pieces in place on that surface at last, and should be ready to really challenge there from now on.
I do predict watching Delpo's story unfold will be one of the fascinating tennis stories of 2013, so you'd be well advised to watch as much of him as you can.
#6 - Tomas Berdych (CZE)
Currently sitting at his career high ranking of 6, one higher than where he started the year, Berdych has found a lot of consistency in his 2012 results - something that had previously held him back. Playing an integral part in the Czech Republic's Davis Cup win has no doubt elevated the season in Berdych's mind to a very memorable one. Yet on tour and at the slams, it was the consistency that shines through, rather than memorable wins.
He started the season strongly, losing to Rafa in the Australian Open QF, and won Montpellier. March was solid rather than spectacular, the losses to Almagro and Dimitrov in Indian Wells and Miami somewhat surprising, but his clay season was excellent, SF in Monte Carlo, losing to Nole, but beating Murray, a tough 3 set loss to Federer in the Madrid final, and QFs of Rome, before losing to Del Potro in the fourth round at Roland Garros. The real blot on the copybook was the R1 loss to everyone's favourite nutjob, Ernests Gulbis, in three straight tiebreak sets. Gulbis was on one of his rare 'on fire' days but even so, that was a shocker, and he followed it up with a loss to Darcis at the Olympics in R1. It seemed like the season was starting to unravel, but he pulled it back together quickly, reaching the final of Winston-Salem, and then beating Federer in the US Open QF, before losing to Murray in a tricky SF in tough conditions. He added a SF in Shanghai, and won the Stockholm tournament, beating Tsonga, and beat him again at the World Tour Finals, ultimately losing to Murray and Djokovic to keep him out of the semis. In the Davis Cup final he battled to a 5 set win over Almagro, and though he lost to Ferrer, Stepanek won the deciding rubber to hand the Czechs the cup.
Overall, a very good year then - but I suspect Tomas would have been wanting to get to another slam final, and be more competitive against the big 4. He scored a win over Murray on clay, and beat Federer at the US Open, but he took many more licks than he handed out against this group, and was rarely competitive against Djokovic. Additionally, he showed himself vulnerable against Del Potro and Ferrer at times.
Tomas should come into 2013 riding a wave of confidence, with the Davis Cup triumph on the slate - but can he capitalise on it? His power is awesome, and he can make the game look brutally easy sometimes, exposing space on the court to power the ball into, and picking off at the net anything weak that comes back. Yet his game is inherently risky, and while the desire to control his own destiny is admirable, at times it leads him into impetuous decisions, especially down the line, on big points. Additionally, there's really not much of a B game there - either it works, or he goes home. Given this, I can't quite picture him as the guy who cracks the conundrum of the top 4, or wins a Grand Slam - I just feel too many things have to work in his favour - this assumes all involved have a healthy season. I do, however, predict that Berdych will be worthy opposition to his fellow top 10 players, and won't be dismissed easily. As top 5 gatecrashers, between him and Delpo, I would give JMDP the edge, though.
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