With 2012 over and 2013 underway, I'm reviewing the 2012 season of the top 50 ATP and WTA players, and notable others, and making an informed guess (quiet at the back) at what 2013 is likely to bring.
#25 - Hsieh Su-Wei (TPE)
Hsieh has always had great promise but has been hit by injury early in her career, and has struggled to progress, but after working with Paul McNamee and focusing on singles, her ranking has skyrocketed. She won Kuala Lumpur and Guangzhou as well as some ITF titlesm and made R3 at Wimbledon. With an unorthodox style, with 2 hands and flat hitting, creating wicked angles but prone to inconsistency, Hsieh on her day can cause anyone a headache. If she can stay fit and focused, she can be top 20 in 2013.
#24 - Venus Williams (USA)
Venus has been around so long and done so much, been through so much, it's hard to know what to expect now. Even though her singles slam days seem behind her, and at times her struggles with health have made watching her on court a tad painful to watch, she seems as focused and dedicated as she ever has been. Her 2012 was difficult and she only qualified for the Olympics by sheer force of will, dragging herself through the clay season to accumulate points in a way she never used to have to. Her schedule was spotty, and her loss to Vesnina at Wimbledon was particularly disappointing - not for the first time, people wondered if she was just running on fumes now, and her battles with Sjögren's Syndrome were proving too much. Nevertheless, she bounced back with some top 10 wins in the fall, and won a title in Luxembourg, her first in over 2 years.
So what about 2013? Well, she seems fit, she seems focused, and she seems to be managing her energy and fitness better. I think she can get back into the top 20 but with a relatively light playing schedule and a relative vulnerability these days, more than that may be too much to expect. On her day though, Venus is a joy to watch and a menace to play against, and she still has some more virtuoso moments in her. Let's enjoy her while we can.
#23 - Yanina Wickmayer (BEL)
2012 started pretty well for the talented if a bit moody Belgian. A final in Hobart, SF in Paris indoors, QF in Doha and R16 in Miami gave her a platform to build on for the season. Unfortunately, on clay she struggled badly, until reaching the final of Bad Gastein post-RG. Aside from a SF in stanford, though, the rest of the season was a bust, with too many early losses. Now that both Justine and Kim are once again retired, presumably for good this time, perhaps it's Yanina's time to shine. She has a strong game, but the mental frailty seems still very much in evidence. She can be top 20 if she can quiet her demons, but I wonder if she's too much of a headcase.
#22 - Jelena Jankovic (SRB)
In 2008 she was World #1 and a US Open finalist. Life was good and perhaps the best was yet to come. 2009 dawned and her results went down the toilet, where they have, relatively speaking, remained ever since. The pattern since then has been a results wasteland, with the odd mirage of a good week, making you wonder if she's coming back. At this point, though, I suspect not.
2012 started fairly promisingly, with a R16 in Melbourne, SFs in Dubai and Kuala Lumpur, but Indian Wells and Miami were a disaster, clay was a bust, and a Final in Birmingham was followed by a loss in R1 at Wimbledon to Clijsters (tough draw, to be fair). She made the final in Dallas pre-US Open but that's all of note. Her once-pinpoint groundstrokes are too unreliable these days, and while she might edge back into the top 20, she seems to have settled back into the pack and her days of flying at the top of the game with only the best as her rivals are gone. She had her moment, and the game has passed her by.
#21 - Varvara Lepchenko (USA)
Lepchenko's emergence in 2012 was something of a surprise to me. Having seen her previously I felt she was not much better than top 50, but she made a real virtue out of consistency, with numerous R16 and QFs in the early part of 2012, a R16 at Roland Garros, and R3 at Wimbledon and the US Open.
If she can stay injury-free, then she can repeat this sort of form in 2013 and hang around the top 20-30, for sure - I think she has less flash about her game than many, but equally, less to go spectacularly wrong. In a womens game where the ladies bounce around the rankings wildly, it's quite nice to see someone who makes a virtue out of solidity.
#20 - Ekaterina Makarova (RUS)
Makarova, a talented Russian with a laid-back, not-very-aggressive style that favours longer points, started 2012 in style, with wins over Zvonareva and Serena Williams en route to the QF of the Australian Open before losing to Sharapova. The rest of the year was less spectacular, but it still usually took a very good player to beat her, except perhaps on clay where she seems less comfortable.
Her game style does leave her vulnerable to the top ladies, who can hang in the rallies and eventually overpower her, but she can hang around the top 20, and her game does mean that if a higher ranked player misfires, she can take full advantage of that.
#19 - Kaia Kanepi (EST)
Kanepi has a huge game and when she's confident, it can hurt anyone else in the game, but she struggles to maintain confidence, and is also injury prone. 2012 started well with a win in Brisbane and another title in Estoril, and run to the QF of Roland Garros, running into eventual champion Sharapova. A heel injury ruined her summer, and a return to the court in Septmber saw her reached the final in Seoul. Since then, however, she has been injured once again, heel problems returning, and is not playing in the Australian Open in 2013.
When she does return, the process of rebuilding her confidence and ranking will begin again. No doubt she can be top 20 again but it could take a long time to get back there.
#18 - Julia Goerges (GER)
One of a crop of recent Germans who emerged into the upper echelons of the game in the past few years, with a big, powerful game that has a few technical issues that can cause it to go wrong in a hurry if she's not feeling it. In 2012 Julia performed okay on big stages, with a R16 in Melbourne, Final in Dubai, and R3 at RG, Wimbledon, and a final in Linz. Solid top 20 stuff but not good enough to move you higher. She has a career high of 15 and I can see her sneaking up to 11-12 perhaps but I feel there's something slightly lacking and top 10 seems unlikely to me. She's slightly too unreliable to get there on consistency and not quite epic enough to do it by going on a huge tear at a slam, in my opinion.
#17 - Lucie Safarova (CZE)
Lucie has a decent serve, a huge leftie forehand, a serviceable backhand and moves pretty well. So you explain to me how she can lose to Madison Keys 62 61 cos I got nothing. All between the ears, of course. She can get confident, do some real damage, then the belief drains away and the shots start punching holes in the back fence. QF in Doha, Final in Charleston, SF in Montreal stand out from 2012, but she did help the Czech ladies defend the Fed Cup on home soil in the final, which was a great achievement for them.
Lucie is in the prime of her career and I've always thought she could be top 10, but she has to get more consistent and employ that big game to greater effect at the big point tournaments in order to get there. I'm not sure I see that happening, to be honest.
#16 - Roberta Vinci (ITA)
Though no doubt overshadowed by her more storied compatriot Errani in 2012, Vinci had a career year in 2012. The trend was solid performances, rarely losing to players below her, punctuated by some good runs, such as R4 at Wimbledon, QF at Montreal, winning Dallas and reaching the US Open QF, not to mention the even more successful doubles career with Errani with 2 Grand Slams out of 3 finals in 2012.
I think that's going to be very tough for Roberta to maintain this ranking in singles in 2012 - doubles might be a different story. I expect a slide back down to between 20 and 40, but perhaps her stickability will prove me wrong. I do expect more doubles success though - she and Errani seem to gel very well.
#15 - Dominika Cibulkova (SVK)
I do find her inconsistency frustrating, not to mention the irritatingly overdone Pome, but given her height, she is a very impressive player - she smacks everything hard and when it's on, her brand of tennis is compelling - her match against Azarenka in Miami last year was once of the best all year.
2012 started fairly inauspiciously, losing 10-8 in the third in R2 in Melbourne to Greta Arn. A series of R1 losses followed - with her gamestyle inconsistency is baked right in. She had Vika by the throat in Miami in R4 before letting the world #1 get away, but reached the Final in Barcelona, QF in Rome, Brussels and Roland Garros. She won Carlsbad in the summer and had a relatively solid end to the year, but she's still capable of throwing in ugly losses.
I can see Cibulkova cracking the top 10, albeit briefly, but her inconsistent go-for-broke style, perhaps necessary given her height, is too high risk to see her really threaten the best for long.
#14 - Maria Kirilenko (RUS)
Maria put together a very nice 2012, with a final in Pattaya, QF in Indian Wells, R4 in Miami, and, following an indifferent clay court season, a QF in Wimbledon where she pushed Aga Radwanska all the way in a very tough, very good match. She backed that up at the Olympics, with a SF placing and then a final in New Haven. She's more solid than she used to be, and more mentally resiliant within matches, which explains why she's ended 2012 on the verge of the top 10.
Can she break in? I'm not so sure, but I wouldn't mind if she did. She has a solid yet attractive game and is better at the net than most. We could do worse.
#13 - Ana Ivanovic (SRB)
Where next for this miss? World #1, Roland Garros champion, world #60-odd, no confidence whatsoever. Slowly rebuilding, getting in shape, perhaps too much so, and on the verge of the top 10 once again after several years.
2012 was characterised by going fairly deep in events then falling to the higher ranked ladies. She lost to Kvitova in R4 in Melbourne, Wozniacki in Dubai, Sharapova in Indian Wells and then Venus in Miami. Errani at the French, Azarenka at Wimbledon, Clijsters at the Olympics, Serena at the US Open. And so on. And this is what's holding Ana back now - she doesn't seem to have the belief that she should be among this cast list and so she loses to them when she has to face them. Her game is perhaps less reliable than theirs - especially that painfull balltoss, and the backhand is still much more vulnerable than the forehand.
In 2013 Ana may yet sneak back into the top 10 but I don't see any significant breakthroughs occuring - she needs to start beating the best to be among the best, but the confidence and execution to do so continues to prove elusive.
#12 - Nadia Petrova (RUS)
It's a long time since that Petrova was world ranked 3 and after years in the relative wilderness, in 2012 Nadia found herself back on the cusp of the top 10. Very talented, with a good serve, big game, and decent net play, Nadia's problems have mostly been between the ears - a confidence-sapping perfectionism that causes her to chastise herself out of matches - how very Russian.
After a slow start to 2012 Nadia had a solid enough clay season - what used to be her best part of the year, but she got going by winning 's-Hertogenbosch, reaching SF in Carlsbad, R4 at the US Open and winning the big tournament in Tokyo, beating 3 top 10 players en route. Big points on offer there. She then finished the year winning the Tournament of Also-Rans in Sofia, demolishing Wozniacki in the final.
So where next? Now 30, and having split with Ricardo Sanchez, who unquestionably helped her rediscover some form, I predict another nosedive for Nadia, given her capacity for self-sabotage. Given most of her points came in the second half of 2012, her ranking may float for a while, but then it could well crash through the floor, unless she can pull herself together.
#11 - Marion Bartoli (FRA)
Marion had a very solid, if unspectacular 2012 - she stuck around in tournaments but never lifted the trophy. R3 in Melbourne, Final in Paris indoors, SF in Doha, QF in Indian Wells, SF in Miami. A poor clay season (it's not good for her, ever) followed by a SF in Eastbourne, then a very bad loss at Wimbledon to Lucic, who was outside the top 100 at the time. She rebounded by reaching the final in Carlsbad, and the US Open QF where she tussled well with Sharapova, and then the SF in Beijing to end the year.
This chick's weirdness is well documented, from the 2 fisted strokes off both sides, to the endless bouncing around on court, the serve quirks, the disputes with the FFT. In 2013 she may bounce back into the top 10 for a bit, or lurk around outside - that seems to be her level, but while she may win smaller titles and make life tricky for the top ladies, she's definitely second tier in my book, and will remain so in 2013.
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