With 2012 over and 2013 underway, I'm reviewing the 2012 season of the top 50 ATP and WTA players, and notable others, and making an informed guess (quiet at the back) at what 2013 is likely to bring. Final installment - WTA top 10 ladies.
#10 - Caroline Wozniacki (DEN)
2012 was pretty disastrous for Caro, considering she started the year ranked 1 and ended it struggling to hold on to a place in the top 10. She briefly experimented with 2 new coachings setups, involving Ricardo Sanchez and later Thomas Johansson, but neither arrangement stuck for very long at all. In the end, Caro has returned to the safe familiarity of having Piotr as her sole coach - he never really went away anyway, and it seems these experiments are over.
The year started okay, with a QF in the Australian Open, SF in Dubai and SF in Indian Wells, and a loss in the final in Copenhagen. On paper this sounds good but she was defending huge points from tour events due to a lack of good results in the slams - her #1 ranking was largely driven from WTA events. Things tailed off further with an indifferent clay court season and a worse grass season, including a bad loss in Eastbourne to McHale and a similar one in Wimbledon to Tamira Paszek. Summer hardcourts wasn't bad but lost in R1 at the US Open. She won her first title all year in Seoul and a second in Moscow, suggesting a return to form, but lost in the final of the WTA's Tournament of Also Rans in Sofia.
Here's Caro's problem - she's definitely more comfortable with her father as coach, but that arrangement has not helped her game develop to where it needs to go. She's been on tour several years now, and her weaknesses are well known. The forehand is a liability and it needs to get better, along with her serve, and she needs to structure her game to release her backhand, which is a more effective and powerful shot. However, her coaching setup has caused her to retreat to the comfortable way of playing - it got her to #1 but everyone is wise to it now, and she doesn't exactly intimidate anyone anymore. Her game needs rebuilding and taking on other sources of coaching was a step towards doing that. In any rebuilding works, the noise and confusion is often more disruptive and difficult than the original state, but you have to endure that, expecting the final state to be a better one than you started with. Caro started the process, encountered the disruption, and sacked the builders, deciding to put up with what she's currently got. I fear this was a mistake, and I can't see 2013 being any better than 2012. She has a lot to offer the game and with some basic improvements she could be much more of a force, but she has decided to throw this away, and I see it as a great shame.
#9 - Samantha Stosur (AUS)
Having unexpectedly won the US Open in 2011, 2012 was always going to be a fascinating one for Sam. All eyes were on the Australian Open, but nerves once again got the better of her, and she fell comfortably to Sorana Cirstea in R1 in Melbourne. Getting out of Australia seemed to help Sam, and she made the finals of Doha, SF in Charleston, QF in Madrid, and SF in Roland Garros, where she lost another turbulent match to Sara Errani. As is customary, the grass season was disappointing, but she made QF in Cincinnati and put up a battle defending the US Open title, ultimately losing in the QF to Azarenka in a very tight 3 set match, one of the matches of the year. Sam ended 2012 with SF in Tokyo and Osaka and a final in Moscow, finishing just outside the top 8. She played Istanbul as an alternate, but lost to both Sharapova and Errani.
Sam is a bit of an enigma. She has a strong game with some limitations. The forehand is excellent and powerful, yet she can lose control of it easily. The serve is good, especially the very effective kick second serve. The backhand can be a bit of a liability but it's better than it used to be. It's a strong enough game to be consistently top 5 - the problem is mental. We've seen at the Aussie Open and at Wimbledon how she sometimes just struggles to cope with situations, and no amount of help in that area has cleared these mental blocks. She finds herself in a specific, flustered mindset, and once she does, the match is almost certainly over. At this stage in her career, I can't see this changing. Sam is likely to hang around inside the upper top 10 or just outside, and there may be a few more decent runs at slams, or tour titles in her, but rather than removing limitations, I expect her to work within the well-established ones.
#8 - Petra Kvitova (CZE)
Finishing inside the top 10 is hardly an awful year, so why does 2012 feel like such a disaster for Petra? Purely expectation. Having stormed to the Wimbledon title in 2011 and backing it up with wins over 5 top 10 opponents to win the YEC in Istanbul too, people could be forgiven for thinking that the future was Petra. A few wiser voices cautioned that her inconsistent gamestyle made it dangerous to build up expectations, but many expected good things that largely failed to materialise.
It started pretty well, although with an omen of things to come - Aussie Open SF, losing to Sharapova in a topsy turvey affair where Petra ultimately seemed to struggle with the situation and couldn't keep her game under control. Indian Wells and Miami were both a bust, and though she added a SF in Stuttgart and a QF in Rome, this wasn't exactly world-beating. She made SF at Roland Garros, losing easily to Sharapova here, and the signs were that she was too brittle to hang with the likes of Maria, Serena and others. She fell in the QFs at Wimbledon to Serena and the QF at the Olympics to Kirilenko. She bounced back by winning Montreal and New Haven, with a SF in Cincy, but then was bundled out of the US Open in R4 by Marion Bartoli. The fall season was grim, with losses to Martic, Suarez Navarro, Ivanovic and Radwanska - this last at the YEC in Istanbul where she was defending champion. She subsequently withdrew from the tournament citing a viral infection. She did assist the Czech Fed Cup team to defend their title, though.
Health problems have been cited as a reason for Kvitova's 2012 issues - including asthma. Sophomore blues is another cause - coming to terms with 2011 success, and backing it up. And it's not like she fell far. Still, Petra failed to grab the WTA by the scruff of the neck - and perhaps she was never going to. As for 2013...I predict more of the same - not sure I see a slam in her for this year - but then again, she could ignite at any moment, and tear through a draw like it was crepe paper. She's so unpredictable that inevitably I have to hedge my bets. Her game is huge when it's on, so I don't really see her falling out of the top 10, at least.
#7 - Sara Errani (ITA)
2012 was spectacular for the diminutive Italian - all the more so for being totally unexpected. The difference? Apparently, a racquet with a longer handle, increasing her reach by 2 inches or so. As most women would testify, an extra 2 inches in the right place can make all the difference. It did for Sara. The signs were there in Australia, when she reached the QF in Melbourne, with an admittedly kind draw, losing to Kvitova. She won Acapulco, Barcelona and Budapest, before the dream run to the final of Roland Garros, seeing off Ivanovic, Kuznetsova, Kerber and Stosur before losing to Sharapova. R3 at Wimbledon was nothing special, apart from conceding a Golden Set to Shvedova, but she bounced back to win Palermo. The hardcourt season was average, until the US Open, where she reached the SF, ultimately losing to Serena. At the YEC in Istanbul, she beat Stosur but lost to Radwanska and Sharapova, leaving at the RR stage.
I doubt I'm the only one who finds it unlikely that Sara will back up this stellar season in 2013. While I expect her to have a decent clay season and linger in the top 20, I don't see the hardcourt results keeping pace. Still, she'll always have 2012. Plus, her doubles career continues to impress. Look out for more slams there.
#6 - Li Na (CHN)
By hiring Henin's former coach Carlos Rodriguez, Li signalled in 2012 that she's not going anywhere, thank you very much, and wants to continue to improve. Result-wise, 2012 wasn't bad, although the slam-winning ways of 2011 were not repeated. Beginning with a final in Sydney, she lost in R4 in Melbourne to Clijsters, who beat her in the final the year before. QF in Indian Wells, Miami, Stuttgart and Madrid, and then a Final in Rome, where lost to Sharapova in a crazy, epic, waterlogged match. She fell in R4 at the French Open to Shvedova, a disappointing result, and grass was not kind to her - R2 at Wimbledon and R1 at the Olympics. She rebounded in the USA, with a final in Montreal and a title in Cincinnati, but again flunked at the US Open, losing in R3 to upcoming Laura Robson. She lost in the SF in Beijing and beat Kerber in Istanbul but lost to Serena and Azarenka.
So, all things considered, Li did very well at tour events, but slumped at the slams. In 2013 I can see Li hanging around the #6 spot - she may get higher if she can post some runs at the slams - perhaps the Rodriguez effect can help here? Just don't talk of retirement - she isn't.
#5 - Angelique Kerber (GER)
Angie first burst into our lives when she made the SF of the US Open in 2011, one of a crop of German ladies making their mark on the top 20. In 2012 she backed it up and set herself apart from the likes of Lisicki, Goerges and the rest, but questions remain as to how much further she can go.
SFs in Auckland and Hobart were followed by a R3 loss in Melbourne to Sharapova. She won Paris indoors, and reached the SF in Indian Wells but crashed in Miami to Zheng Jie. She won Copenhagen, and had a solid clay season, with a SF in Rome and a QF at Roland Garros, losing to Errani. She lost to Paszek in the final of Eastbourne but went through to the SF in Wimbledon, losing to Aga Radwanska. QF at the Olympics, then a final in cincinnati, nit she fell at the US Open in R4 to Errani again. The season ended with a SF in Tokyo, QF in Beijing and she lost all her matches in Istanbul, to Li, Serena, and to Azarenka in a 3 set thriller that was one of the matches of 2012.
Kerber is a very good counterpuncher, and she has been trying to add more aggression to finish points off more quickly, with variable results. A big problem can be her attitude - she has a Petrova-like strain of self-criticism, which can lead her into fits of petulant behaviour on court that rarely helps her form. I see her roughly holding her position in 2013 in the top 10, but is she ready for a big breakthrough? I'm not sure I see it.
#4 - Agnieszka Radwanska (POL)
Another extremely solid year for Radwanksa, including a first Grand Slam final. She's a wily competitior but can she make the ultimate step up? In 2012 she reached the Australian Open QF, losing to Azarenka (a streak that would continue throughout the year). SF in Doha, Won Dubai, QF in Indian Wells and won Miami, beating Sharapova in the final. More losses to Vika in Stuttgart and Madrid, won Brussels but lost in R3 to Kuznetsova, looking distinctly jaded and overplayed. However, she bounced back quickly, reaching the final at Wimbledon, taking Serena to three sets. The summer hardcourt season was indifferent, with QFs in Montreal and Cincy, and a R4 loss to Vinci at the US Open. In the fall she reached the final in Tokyo and QF in Beijing, and in Istanbul she lost to Maria but beat Sara and Petra before losing pretty easily to Serena in the SFs.
So what can Aga do in 2013? She's pretty good at making up for her lack of power, but she does over-schedule herself, and she is vulnerable to the biggest hitters, and I don't see that changing. Still, it sure is fun to have her around.
#3 - Serena Williams (USA)
2012 started very uncertainly for Serena - coming back off her myriad injury problems, and it sure didn't start off great. She withdrew from Brisbane after 2 matches, then lost to Makarova in R4 in Melbourne, and then fell to Wozniacki in straight sets in Miami. Was she finally in decline? Was the juggernaut finally stopped? She's been written off more times than the banking system's debts and she loves to prove people wrong. She won Charleston, no sets dropped, she won Madrid, she reached the SF of Rome before withdrawing, but then suffered a shocker as she lost to Razzano in R1 of Roland Garros - her first ever R1 loss at a slam. From that low, things would turn dramatically. Though she dropped sets to Jie Zheng and Yaroslava Shvedova, and to Radwanska in the final, she won the title, her first Grand Slam since Wimbledon 2010. She followed up by winning Stanford, and breezed through the Olympics to take Gold, demolishing all comers, dropping no more than 3 games in any set and giving Sharapova just 1 game in the final. Though she lost to Kerber in the QF of Cincinnati, she smashed through the US Open draw until she ran into Azarenka in the final. It was a fascinating, competitive match that Serena ultimately won, perhaps vanquishing some of her recent US Open demons. Serena took the fall off, returning at the YEC in Istanbul, which she won again, without dropping a set again. The dominance seemed back, more dominant than ever.
For a woman who's been everywhere and done everything, and been through enough trials and tribulations to send three people into long-term therapy, predicting her next move has always been a gamble. However, if she can stay healthy and motivated (THE two big Ifs) then she can continue to dominate the Slams. For my part, I see her winning at least two more this year, take your picks which ones - the only one I tend to discount is the French - though I suspect this is the one she wants most so she might just prove us all wrong again. In the end, Serena is a level or two above all the other players on tour, and what happens is largely dictated by her.
#2 - Maria Sharapova (RUS)
In 2012 Maria finally got back in the Grand Slam winning circle, pulling off a Career Grand Slam at Roland Garros that once seemed HIGHLY improbable. She made the Final of Melbourne, but was hammered convincingly by Azarenka, and lost to her again in the Final at Indian Wells, and in Miami she lost in the Final to Radwanska. Things picked up on clay, winning Stuttgart but losing in the QF in Madrid comfortably to Serena. She bounced back to win Rome, and then rattled through the draw at Roland Garros, dropping only 1 set en route to the title. She was a little jaded going into Wimbledon and lost to Lisicki in straight sets in R4. She reached the Final at the Olympics but had to settle for silver, being manhandled once again by Serena, only enhancing the lopsided head to head. Still, Maria has a great capacity not to let disappointment linger. She reached the SF at the US Open, and had a strong tussle with Azarenka before losing in 3 sets. She lost to Azarenka again in Beijing and reached the final in Istanbul before losing once again to Serena in a less one-sided affair that has usually been the rule.
Maria has been around for 9 years, bagged 4 slams, and built a fortune, and is now building a business empire. Yet her hunger for more success seems as strong as ever. I still see her game as being a bit brittle, and she's always likely to struggle against the likes of Azarenka and Williams, who have more fluid games. However, nobody can doubt her mental strength and if she can stay injury free, she can no doubt be a factor at the back end of the majors in 2013. Will she win one? I'm going to say no, purely because she always wins her slams in even years... :)
#1 - Victoria Azarenka (BLR)
Well, it was an excellent season for Vika, winning that first slam and ascending to the #1 in the rankings, going on a 20 match + win streak that didn't end until the end of March. She won Sydney and then the Australian Open, beating Clijsters in the SF and Sharapova in the Final. She won Doha and Indian Wells, before falling in the QF in Miami to Bartoli, looking totally jaded. She reached the Final in Stuttgart, losing to Maria, lost in the Final of Madrid to Serena, and fell in R4 at Roland Garros to Cibulkova. At Wimbledon she made SFs, losing to Serena in a tough 2 set match, and repeated this at the Olympics, though this time Serena beat her in a more one-sided encounter. She reached the Final at the US Open, with good wins over Stosur and Sharapova before losing to Serena 7-5 in the third. She won Beijing and Linz but ended the season losing to Sharapova in the SF of Istanbul.
Great consistency, couple of injury-related w/o's aside, with numerous titles and playing the other top 10 ladies hard. So where in 2013? She needs to continue to improve her game - she could do with a bit more offensive power to shorten points and more willingness to move forward, but she's on top of the tree, at least in the rankings, and has proved she can beat Sharapova more often than not. The H2H with Serena is lop-sided though, and she needs to work on ways to beat her - a challenge for all the other ladies on tour, too. Perhaps Vika can win her second slam in 2013, perhaps at the US Open, but I feel like a lot of that will be down to what Serena does, or does not do. Vika's destiny may not be in her own hands.
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