Slip, Slap, Drop

Does someone have to become seriously ill before sensible heat rules are developed?

So often in best of five set tennis, winning that 5th and final set is as much about heart and guts than it is about shotmaking and tactics.  In Melbourne more so than the other slams, it's also about physical conditioning.  These matches are often played in uncomfortable, not to say brutally hot conditions, and can last up to five hours.  At the end, winner and loser alike share the sensation of exhaustion that comes from such prolonged exertion in conditions the body does not handle well.

And yet, most of the time, both players walk off court, and the winner is able to take to the court for his next match, perhaps with an empty tank, but reasonably ready to go under the circumstances.

However, weather conditions in Australia this year have been particularly challenging for the natives, and during the Australian Open, temperatures on court reached 40C during the period of play. Spare a thought then for Australia's James Duckworth and Blaz Kavcic of Slovenia, who played for nearly 5 hours in these draining conditions.  Kavcic would take the victory in the end, and stagger off court, but in the locker room he went into full body spasm and needed to be treated by medics.  Blaz seems to be okay, and he will no doubt take to the court on Saturday against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga but his ability to compete has to have been badly affected.  Meanwhile, tennis has dodged another bullet.

Part of this is just the nature of the beast - survival of the fittest has always been an aspect of tennis, and if Jo won his match much more easily than Blaz, and hence starts at a physical advantage, then tough.  The problem here is that the heat policy that the tournament employs is not fit for purpose - it fails at the very moment it is most needed.

The policy is, in a nutshell:

• No new matches can start on outside courts for at least an hour after the policy is implemented
• All matches in progress must be completed
• The Tournament referee may suspend matches if deemed dangerous
• The roofs of both the Rod Laver and Vodafone Arenas can be closed, but only after current matches have been completed
• There is provision for the breaks between games and sets to be made longer than usual during the heat-affected matches

It comes into effect when the temperature hits 35C and the heat stress level reaches 28 - heat stress level being a measure of various factors to determine the intensity of the heat and light.

In spite of this policy, we have seen in the past how it is inadequate to protect the health of players.  The famous Sharapova-Pin match of 2007 is a case in point.  Pin later said her feet burned and her legs were shaking due to the radiant heat coming back off the court.  Sharapova spoke of being delusional.  In another match, Tipsarevic retired in the fifth set against Nalbandian due to the conditions.  Nalbandian himself suffered headaches and dizziness following the match - classic symptoms of heat stroke.

The problem here is the combination of factors - that "all matches in progress must be completed" combined with the long final set in play in Melbourne means that players, like Kavcic and Duckworth, can be out there for hour after draining hour until the match is won by one of them.  There's no provision for the players to agree the conditions are too taxing.  There's the vague provision that the tournament referee may suspend matches if conditions are deemed dangerous - but what does that mean in practice?  What factors determine that the match is now officially "dangerous"?  Kavcic basically collapsed in the locker room after his victory.  Does that mean that match was officially dangerous and should really have been suspended?

The rules right now do little to stop the players avoiding serious health risks.  They have the option to retire, but it is surely wrong to make protecting their health from the extreme conditions a decision solely down to the player - let's keep in mind that for many players, reaching a Grand Slam main draw is a huge deal for them, and it's hard to expect them to throw in the towel under those circumstances - many will choose to try and fight on, and risk health damage in the process.  

Surely with some tweaking of this heat rule policy, some more robust criteria can be used to determine the safety of the conditions - introducing mandatory longer breaks in a cooler, shaded area to give the body's core time to cool before resuming the match?

I am all for the gladiatorial nature of the tennis combat.  I do not want to see tennis made "easy", or lose the thrill of watching two players fight tooth and nail for a place in the next round.  I'm just not sufficiently down with the Romans to want to see a death at the end of it.  I worry, though, that it will take that, or at least a serious health outcome for one or more players, to make them see that these rules need to be changed to protect the players better than they do right now.  Tennis authorities have an unfortunate strain of complacency about this and other matters - they would do well to think in terms of prevention rather than risk having to apologise ex post facto for failing to protect their players.

Sleepless Seeing Battles

As any serious tennis fan in a sensible timezone will tell you, January can be a difficult month.  You emerge from the long black tunnel of the December off-season, blinking into the light of Middle Eastern exos and a tennis overload from the other side of the world.  Having been deprived for so long, literally WEEKS, the temptation to over-indulge can be a difficult one to avoid.  This is when you find yourself awake at 3am watching Vesnina in Auckland and you're actually having fun.

However, by the time the Australian Open itself rolls around, the sleepless shenanigans begin to take their toll - just as the biggest endurance effort of all is required.  You approach this time with an unsettling combination of near hysterical excitement and lurking dread at the physical toll that will be exacted.

You know full well that you'll find yourself, within a few days, sleeping and eating at deeply inappropriate times - sometimes at the same time.  You'll be glued to your TV, tablet or other tennis source while the rest of your nation slumbers, watching something crazy unfold while mainlining artificial stimulants and trying to ignore that insistent feeling from your thalamus telling you that if you continue to ignore it, it will exact a painful revenge at a time of its choosing.  We all know that feeling, like someone attached a bowling ball to each eyelid and forming a cogent thought requires almost conscious manipulation of the appropriate axons and dendrites.  You type things that seem to make sense, but on later re-reading seem to have emerged from the imagination of David Lynch with a temperature of 104.  In short, the spirit is willing but the body is weak, and it gets worse with each passing year.

Yes, January is tough.  But is it worth it?

The thing with tennis is, there's nothing like watching it live - if not right there, then live on TV.  Especially these days when you can share the moment over the internet with fellow nutcases, the whole experience is elevated into a communal bonding experience.  Watching the reruns gives you the script, but it really only comes to its fullest life if you watch it in the moment.  So you might be awake at 4am and know that you still have a day's work ahead of you, but suck it up.  

In the first four days we've had Janowicz having a meltdown yet prevailing, we've had Lacko battle bravely before falling to Tipsarevic, we've had Monfils demonstrate his full repertoire of crazy in beating Lu 8-6 in the fifth.  We've seen Roger, Andy and Novak put on masterclasses of efficiency.  We've had the new Crown Prince, Tomic, talking a much better game than he's playing, but still winning.  We've had dreadfully compelling spectacles like Robson being less worse than Kvitova, 11-9 in the third.  We've had Serena dropping 2 games in 2 matches yet still providing enough drama to power a telenovela for 2 seasons.  

We've had the Shakespearean tragedy of Stosur's painful-but-inevitable fall into the pit she dug for her enemies.  Heather Watson showing that even with winning ugly there can be too much of a good thing.  Cibulkova losing to someone with even more obnoxious on-court behaviour than herself.  Sharapova selling sweets and playing sour.  We've even had Kuznetsova winning without drama; every type of human drama you can imagine has already been on display somewhere, on a showcourt, on an outside court, it's all going on.  It's a Grand Slam, baby, and there's nothing else like it.

So my advice to you?  Pop those matchsticks in the eye sockets, mainline caffeine, firmly sit on those strung out sensations, and give your cerebellum a good talking to.  We're not even halfway in yet and it's gonna get good.  Sleep is for the weak and we have 11 months to be weak in.  In January, we must be strong.  It's too much fun to miss.

What will 2013 Bring? Part 10 - WTA #1-10

With 2012 over and 2013 underway, I'm reviewing the 2012 season of the top 50 ATP and WTA players, and notable others, and making an informed guess (quiet at the back) at what 2013 is likely to bring.  Final installment - WTA top 10 ladies.

#10 - Caroline Wozniacki (DEN)

2012 was pretty disastrous for Caro, considering she started the year ranked 1 and ended it struggling to hold on to a place in the top 10.  She briefly experimented with 2 new coachings setups, involving Ricardo Sanchez and later Thomas Johansson, but neither arrangement stuck for very long at all.  In the end, Caro has returned to the safe familiarity of having Piotr as her sole coach - he never really went away anyway, and it seems these experiments are over.

The year started okay, with a QF in the Australian Open, SF in Dubai and SF in Indian Wells, and a loss in the final in Copenhagen.  On paper this sounds good but she was defending huge points from tour events due to a lack of good results in the slams - her #1 ranking was largely driven from WTA events.  Things tailed off further with an indifferent clay court season and a worse grass season, including a bad loss in Eastbourne to McHale and a similar one in Wimbledon to Tamira Paszek.  Summer hardcourts wasn't bad but lost in R1 at the US Open.  She won her first title all year in Seoul and a second in Moscow, suggesting a return to form, but lost in the final of the WTA's Tournament of Also Rans in Sofia.

Here's Caro's problem - she's definitely more comfortable with her father as coach, but that arrangement has not helped her game develop to where it needs to go.  She's been on tour several years now, and her weaknesses are well known.  The forehand is a liability and it needs to get better, along with her serve, and she needs to structure her game to release her backhand, which is a more effective and powerful shot.  However, her coaching setup has caused her to retreat to the comfortable way of playing - it got her to #1 but everyone is wise to it now, and she doesn't exactly intimidate anyone anymore.  Her game needs rebuilding and taking on other sources of coaching was a step towards doing that.  In any rebuilding works, the noise and confusion is often more disruptive and difficult than the original state, but you have to endure that, expecting the final state to be a better one than you started with.  Caro started the process, encountered the disruption, and sacked the builders, deciding to put up with what she's currently got.  I fear this was a mistake, and I can't see 2013 being any better than 2012.  She has a lot to offer the game and with some basic improvements she could be much more of a force, but she has decided to throw this away, and I see it as a great shame.

#9 - Samantha Stosur (AUS)

Having unexpectedly won the US Open in 2011, 2012 was always going to be a fascinating one for Sam.  All eyes were on the Australian Open, but nerves once again got the better of her, and she fell comfortably to Sorana Cirstea in R1 in Melbourne.  Getting out of Australia seemed to help Sam, and she made the finals of Doha, SF in Charleston, QF in Madrid, and SF in Roland Garros, where she lost another turbulent match to Sara Errani.  As is customary, the grass season was disappointing, but she made QF in Cincinnati and put up a battle defending the US Open title, ultimately losing in the QF to Azarenka in a very tight 3 set match, one of the matches of the year.  Sam ended 2012 with SF in Tokyo and Osaka and a final in Moscow, finishing just outside the top 8.  She played Istanbul as an alternate, but lost to both Sharapova and Errani.

Sam is a bit of an enigma.  She has a strong game with some limitations.  The forehand is excellent and powerful, yet she can lose control of it easily.  The serve is good, especially the very effective kick second serve.  The backhand can be a bit of a liability but it's better than it used to be.  It's a strong enough game to be consistently top 5 - the problem is mental.  We've seen at the Aussie Open and at Wimbledon how she sometimes just struggles to cope with situations, and no amount of help in that area has cleared these mental blocks.  She finds herself in a specific, flustered mindset, and once she does, the match is almost certainly over.  At this stage in her career, I can't see this changing.  Sam is likely to hang around inside the upper top 10 or just outside, and there may be a few more decent runs at slams, or tour titles in her, but rather than removing limitations, I expect her to work within the well-established ones.

#8 - Petra Kvitova (CZE)

Finishing inside the top 10 is hardly an awful year, so why does 2012 feel like such a disaster for Petra?  Purely expectation.  Having stormed to the Wimbledon title in 2011 and backing it up with wins over 5 top 10 opponents to win the YEC in Istanbul too, people could be forgiven for thinking that the future was Petra.  A few wiser voices cautioned that her inconsistent gamestyle made it dangerous to build up expectations, but many expected good things that largely failed to materialise.

It started pretty well, although with an omen of things to come - Aussie Open SF, losing to Sharapova in a topsy turvey affair where Petra ultimately seemed to struggle with the situation and couldn't keep her game under control.  Indian Wells and Miami were both a bust, and though she added a SF in Stuttgart and a QF in Rome, this wasn't exactly world-beating.  She made SF at Roland Garros, losing easily to Sharapova here, and the signs were that she was too brittle to hang with the likes of Maria, Serena and others.  She fell in the QFs at Wimbledon to Serena and the QF at the Olympics to Kirilenko.  She bounced back by winning Montreal and New Haven, with a SF in Cincy, but then was bundled out of the US Open in R4 by Marion Bartoli.  The fall season was grim, with losses to Martic, Suarez Navarro, Ivanovic and Radwanska - this last at the YEC in Istanbul where she was defending champion.  She subsequently withdrew from the tournament citing a viral infection.  She did assist the Czech Fed Cup team to defend their title, though.

Health problems have been cited as a reason for Kvitova's 2012 issues - including asthma.  Sophomore blues is another cause - coming to terms with 2011 success, and backing it up.  And it's not like she fell far.  Still, Petra failed to grab the WTA by the scruff of the neck - and perhaps she was never going to.  As for 2013...I predict more of the same - not sure I see a slam in her for this year - but then again, she could ignite at any moment, and tear through a draw like it was crepe paper.  She's so unpredictable that inevitably I have to hedge my bets.  Her game is huge when it's on, so I don't really see her falling out of the top 10, at least.

#7 - Sara Errani (ITA)

2012 was spectacular for the diminutive Italian - all the more so for being totally unexpected.  The difference?  Apparently, a racquet with a longer handle, increasing her reach by 2 inches or so.  As most women would testify, an extra 2 inches in the right place can make all the difference.  It did for Sara.  The signs were there in Australia, when she reached the QF in Melbourne, with an admittedly kind draw, losing to Kvitova.  She won Acapulco, Barcelona and Budapest, before the dream run to the final of Roland Garros, seeing off Ivanovic, Kuznetsova, Kerber and Stosur before losing to Sharapova.  R3 at Wimbledon was nothing special, apart from conceding a Golden Set to Shvedova, but she bounced back to win Palermo.  The hardcourt season was average, until the US Open, where she reached the SF, ultimately losing to Serena.  At the YEC in Istanbul, she beat Stosur but lost to Radwanska and Sharapova, leaving at the RR stage.

I doubt I'm the only one who finds it unlikely that Sara will back up this stellar season in 2013. While I expect her to have a decent clay season and linger in the top 20, I don't see the hardcourt results keeping pace.  Still, she'll always have 2012.  Plus, her doubles career continues to impress.  Look out for more slams there.

#6 - Li Na (CHN)

By hiring Henin's former coach Carlos Rodriguez, Li signalled in 2012 that she's not going anywhere, thank you very much, and wants to continue to improve.  Result-wise, 2012 wasn't bad, although the slam-winning ways of 2011 were not repeated.  Beginning with a final in Sydney, she lost in R4 in Melbourne to Clijsters, who beat her in the final the year before.  QF in Indian Wells, Miami, Stuttgart and Madrid, and then a Final in Rome, where lost to Sharapova in a crazy, epic, waterlogged match.  She fell in R4 at the French Open to Shvedova, a disappointing result, and grass was not kind to her - R2 at Wimbledon and R1 at the Olympics.  She rebounded in the USA, with a final in Montreal and a title in Cincinnati, but again flunked at the US Open, losing in R3 to upcoming Laura Robson.  She lost in the SF in Beijing and beat Kerber in Istanbul but lost to Serena and Azarenka.

So, all things considered, Li did very well at tour events, but slumped at the slams.  In 2013 I can see Li hanging around the #6 spot - she may get higher if she can post some runs at the slams - perhaps the Rodriguez effect can help here?  Just don't talk of retirement - she isn't.

#5 - Angelique Kerber (GER)

Angie first burst into our lives when she made the SF of the US Open in 2011, one of a crop of German ladies making their mark on the top 20.  In 2012 she backed it up and set herself apart from the likes of Lisicki, Goerges and the rest, but questions remain as to how much further she can go.  

SFs in Auckland and Hobart were followed by a R3 loss in Melbourne to Sharapova.  She won Paris indoors, and  reached the SF in Indian Wells but crashed in Miami to Zheng Jie.  She won Copenhagen, and had a solid clay season, with a SF in Rome and a QF at Roland Garros, losing to Errani.  She lost to Paszek in the final of Eastbourne but went through to the SF in Wimbledon, losing to Aga Radwanska.  QF at the Olympics, then a final in cincinnati, nit she fell at the US Open in R4 to Errani again.  The season ended with a SF in Tokyo, QF in Beijing and she lost all her matches in Istanbul, to Li, Serena, and to Azarenka in a 3 set thriller that was one of the matches of 2012.

Kerber is a very good counterpuncher, and she has been trying to add more aggression to finish points off more quickly, with variable results.  A big problem can be her attitude - she has a Petrova-like strain of self-criticism, which can lead her into fits of petulant behaviour on court that rarely helps her form.  I see her roughly holding her position in 2013 in the top 10, but is she ready for a big breakthrough?  I'm not sure I see it.

#4 - Agnieszka Radwanska (POL)

Another extremely solid year for Radwanksa, including a first Grand Slam final.  She's a wily competitior but can she make the ultimate step up?  In 2012 she reached the Australian Open QF, losing to Azarenka (a streak that would continue throughout the year).  SF in Doha, Won Dubai, QF in Indian Wells and won Miami, beating Sharapova in the final.  More losses to Vika in Stuttgart and Madrid, won Brussels but lost in R3 to Kuznetsova, looking distinctly jaded and overplayed.  However, she bounced back quickly, reaching the final at Wimbledon, taking Serena to three sets.  The summer hardcourt season was indifferent, with QFs in Montreal and Cincy, and a R4 loss to Vinci at the US Open.  In the fall she reached the final in Tokyo and QF in Beijing, and in Istanbul she lost to Maria but beat Sara and Petra before losing pretty easily to Serena in the SFs.

So what can Aga do in 2013?  She's pretty good at making up for her lack of power, but she does over-schedule herself, and she is vulnerable to the biggest hitters, and I don't see that changing.  Still, it sure is fun to have her around.

#3 - Serena Williams (USA)

2012 started very uncertainly for Serena - coming back off her myriad injury problems, and it sure didn't start off great.  She withdrew from Brisbane after 2 matches, then lost to Makarova in R4 in Melbourne, and then fell to Wozniacki in straight sets in Miami.  Was she finally in decline?  Was the juggernaut finally stopped?  She's been written off more times than the banking system's debts and she loves to prove people wrong.  She won Charleston, no sets dropped, she won Madrid, she reached the SF of Rome before withdrawing, but then suffered a shocker as she lost to Razzano in R1 of Roland Garros - her first ever R1 loss at a slam.  From that low, things would turn dramatically.  Though she dropped sets to Jie Zheng and Yaroslava Shvedova, and to Radwanska in the final, she won the title, her first Grand Slam since Wimbledon 2010.  She followed up by winning Stanford, and breezed through the Olympics to take Gold, demolishing all comers, dropping no more than 3 games in any set and giving Sharapova just 1 game in the final.  Though she lost to Kerber in the QF of Cincinnati, she smashed through the US Open draw until she ran into Azarenka in the final.  It was a fascinating, competitive match that Serena ultimately won, perhaps vanquishing some of her recent US Open demons.  Serena took the fall off, returning at the YEC in Istanbul, which she won again, without dropping a set again.  The dominance seemed back, more dominant than ever.

For a woman who's been everywhere and done everything, and been through enough trials and tribulations to send three people into long-term therapy, predicting her next move has always been a gamble.  However, if she can stay healthy and motivated (THE two big Ifs) then she can continue to dominate the Slams.  For my part, I see her winning at least two more this year, take your picks which ones - the only one I tend to discount is the French - though I suspect this is the one she wants most so she might just prove us all wrong again. In the end, Serena is a level or two above all the other players on tour, and what happens is largely dictated by her.

#2 - Maria Sharapova (RUS)

In 2012 Maria finally got back in the Grand Slam winning circle, pulling off a Career Grand Slam at Roland Garros that once seemed HIGHLY improbable.  She made the Final of Melbourne, but was hammered convincingly by Azarenka, and lost to her again in the Final at Indian Wells, and in Miami she lost in the Final to Radwanska.  Things picked up on clay, winning Stuttgart but losing in the QF in Madrid comfortably to Serena.  She bounced back to win Rome, and then rattled through the draw at Roland Garros, dropping only 1 set en route to the title.  She was a little jaded going into Wimbledon and lost to Lisicki in straight sets in R4.  She reached the Final at the Olympics but had to settle for silver, being manhandled once again by Serena, only enhancing the lopsided head to head.  Still, Maria has a great capacity not to let disappointment linger.  She reached the SF at the US Open, and had a strong tussle with Azarenka before losing in 3 sets.  She lost to Azarenka again in Beijing and reached the final in Istanbul before losing once again to Serena in a less one-sided affair that has usually been the rule.

Maria has been around for 9 years, bagged 4 slams, and built a fortune, and is now building a business empire.  Yet her hunger for more success seems as strong as ever.  I still see her game as being a bit brittle, and she's always likely to struggle against the likes of Azarenka and Williams, who have more fluid games.  However, nobody can doubt her mental strength and if she can stay injury free, she can no doubt be a factor at the back end of the majors in 2013.  Will she win one?  I'm going to say no, purely because she always wins her slams in even years...  :)

#1 - Victoria Azarenka (BLR)

Well, it was an excellent season for Vika, winning that first slam and ascending to the #1 in the rankings, going on a 20 match + win streak that didn't end until the end of March.  She won Sydney and then the Australian Open, beating Clijsters in the SF and Sharapova in the Final.  She won Doha and Indian Wells, before falling in the QF in Miami to Bartoli, looking totally jaded.  She reached the Final in Stuttgart, losing to Maria, lost in the Final of Madrid to Serena, and fell in R4 at Roland Garros to Cibulkova.  At Wimbledon she made SFs, losing to Serena in a tough 2 set match, and repeated this at the Olympics, though this time Serena beat her in a more one-sided encounter.  She reached the Final at the US Open, with good wins over Stosur and Sharapova before losing to Serena 7-5 in the third.  She won Beijing and Linz but ended the season losing to Sharapova in the SF of Istanbul.

Great consistency, couple of injury-related w/o's aside, with numerous titles and playing the other top 10 ladies hard.  So where in 2013?  She needs to continue to improve her game - she could do with a bit more offensive power to shorten points and more willingness to move forward, but she's on top of the tree, at least in the rankings, and has proved she can beat Sharapova more often than not.  The H2H with Serena is lop-sided though, and she needs to work on ways to beat her - a challenge for all the other ladies on tour, too.  Perhaps Vika can win her second slam in 2013, perhaps at the US Open, but I feel like a lot of that will be down to what Serena does, or does not do.  Vika's destiny may not be in her own hands.

What will 2013 Bring? Part 9 - WTA #11-25

With 2012 over and 2013 underway, I'm reviewing the 2012 season of the top 50 ATP and WTA players, and notable others, and making an informed guess (quiet at the back) at what 2013 is likely to bring.

#25 - Hsieh Su-Wei (TPE)

Hsieh has always had great promise but has been hit by injury early in her career, and has struggled to progress, but after working with Paul McNamee and focusing on singles, her ranking has skyrocketed.  She won Kuala Lumpur and Guangzhou as well as some ITF titlesm and made R3 at Wimbledon.  With an unorthodox style, with 2 hands and flat hitting, creating wicked angles but prone to inconsistency, Hsieh on her day can cause anyone a headache.  If she can stay fit and focused, she can be top 20 in 2013.

#24 - Venus Williams (USA)

Venus has been around so long and done so much, been through so much, it's hard to know what to expect now.  Even though her singles slam days seem behind her, and at times her struggles with health have made watching her on court a tad painful to watch, she seems as focused and dedicated as she ever has been.  Her 2012 was difficult and she only qualified for the Olympics by sheer force of will, dragging herself through the clay season to accumulate points in a way she never used to have to.  Her schedule was spotty, and her loss to Vesnina at Wimbledon was particularly disappointing - not for the first time, people wondered if she was just running on fumes now, and her battles with Sjögren's Syndrome were proving too much.  Nevertheless, she bounced back with some top 10 wins in the fall, and won a title in Luxembourg, her first in over 2 years.

So what about 2013?  Well, she seems fit, she seems focused, and she seems to be managing her energy and fitness better.  I think she can get back into the top 20 but with a relatively light playing schedule and a relative vulnerability these days, more than that may be too much to expect.  On her day though, Venus is a joy to watch and a menace to play against, and she still has some more virtuoso moments in her.  Let's enjoy her while we can.

#23 - Yanina Wickmayer (BEL)

2012 started pretty well for the talented if a bit moody Belgian.  A final in Hobart, SF in Paris indoors, QF in Doha and R16 in Miami gave her a platform to build on for the season.  Unfortunately, on clay she struggled badly, until reaching the final of Bad Gastein post-RG.  Aside from a SF in stanford, though, the rest of the season was a bust,  with too many early losses.   Now that both Justine and Kim are once again retired, presumably for good this time, perhaps it's Yanina's time to shine.  She has a strong game, but the mental frailty seems still very much in evidence.  She can be top 20 if she can quiet her demons, but I wonder if she's too much of a headcase.

#22 - Jelena Jankovic (SRB)

In 2008 she was World #1 and a US Open finalist.  Life was good and perhaps the best was yet to come.  2009 dawned and her results went down the toilet, where they have, relatively speaking, remained ever since.  The pattern since then has been a results wasteland, with the odd mirage of a good week, making you wonder if she's coming back.  At this point, though, I suspect not.  

2012 started fairly promisingly, with a R16 in Melbourne, SFs in Dubai and Kuala Lumpur, but Indian Wells and Miami were a disaster, clay was a bust, and a Final in Birmingham was followed by a loss in R1 at Wimbledon to Clijsters (tough draw, to be fair).  She made the final in Dallas pre-US Open but that's all of note.  Her once-pinpoint groundstrokes are too unreliable these days, and while she might edge back into the top 20, she seems to have settled back into the pack and her days of flying at the top of the game with only the best as her rivals are gone.  She had her moment, and the game has passed her by.

#21 - Varvara Lepchenko (USA)

Lepchenko's emergence in 2012 was something of a surprise to me. Having seen her previously I felt she was not much better than top 50, but she made a real virtue out of consistency, with numerous R16 and QFs in the early part of 2012, a R16 at Roland Garros, and R3 at Wimbledon and the US Open.

If she can stay injury-free, then she can repeat this sort of form in 2013 and hang around the top 20-30, for sure - I think she has less flash about her game than many, but equally, less to go spectacularly wrong.  In a womens game where the ladies bounce around the rankings wildly, it's quite nice to see someone who makes a virtue out of solidity.

#20 - Ekaterina Makarova (RUS)

Makarova, a talented Russian with a laid-back, not-very-aggressive style that favours longer points, started 2012 in style, with wins over Zvonareva and Serena Williams en route to the QF of the Australian Open before losing to Sharapova.  The rest of the year was less spectacular, but it still usually took a very good player to beat her, except perhaps on clay where she seems less comfortable.

Her game style does leave her vulnerable to the top ladies, who can hang in the rallies and eventually overpower her, but she can hang around the top 20, and her game does mean that if a higher ranked player misfires, she can take full advantage of that.

#19 - Kaia Kanepi (EST)

Kanepi has a huge game and when she's confident, it can hurt anyone else in the game, but she struggles to maintain confidence, and is also injury prone.  2012 started well with a win in Brisbane and another title in Estoril, and run to the QF of Roland Garros, running into eventual champion Sharapova.  A heel injury ruined her summer, and a return to the court in Septmber saw her reached the final in Seoul.  Since then, however, she has been injured once again, heel problems returning, and is not playing in the Australian Open in 2013.

When she does return, the process of rebuilding her confidence and ranking will begin again.  No doubt she can be top 20 again but it could take a long time to get back there.

#18 - Julia Goerges (GER)

One of a crop of recent Germans who emerged into the upper echelons of the game in the past few years, with a big, powerful game that has a few technical issues that can cause it to go wrong in a hurry if she's not feeling it.  In 2012 Julia performed okay on big stages, with a R16 in Melbourne, Final in Dubai, and R3 at RG, Wimbledon, and a final in Linz.  Solid top 20 stuff but not good enough to move you higher.  She has a career high of 15 and I can see her sneaking up to 11-12 perhaps but I feel there's something slightly lacking and top 10 seems unlikely to me.  She's slightly too unreliable to get there on consistency and not quite epic enough to do it by going on a huge tear at a slam, in my opinion.

#17 - Lucie Safarova (CZE)

Lucie has a decent serve, a huge leftie forehand, a serviceable backhand and moves pretty well.  So you explain to me how she can lose to Madison Keys 62 61 cos I got nothing.  All between the ears, of course.  She can get confident, do some real damage, then the belief drains away and the shots start punching holes in the back fence.  QF in Doha, Final in Charleston, SF in Montreal stand out from 2012, but she did help the Czech ladies defend the Fed Cup on home soil in the final, which was a great achievement for them.

Lucie is in the prime of her career and I've always thought she could be top 10, but she has to get more consistent and employ that big game to greater effect at the big point tournaments in order to get there.  I'm not sure I see that happening, to be honest.  

#16 - Roberta Vinci (ITA)

Though no doubt overshadowed by her more storied compatriot Errani in 2012, Vinci had a career year in 2012.  The trend was solid performances, rarely losing to players below her, punctuated by some good runs, such as R4 at Wimbledon, QF at Montreal, winning Dallas and reaching the US Open QF, not to mention the even more successful doubles career with Errani with 2 Grand Slams out of 3 finals in 2012.

I think that's going to be very tough for Roberta to maintain this ranking in singles in 2012 - doubles might be a different story.  I expect a slide back down to between 20 and 40, but perhaps her stickability will prove me wrong.  I do expect more doubles success though - she and Errani seem to gel very well.

#15 - Dominika Cibulkova (SVK)

I do find her inconsistency frustrating, not to mention the irritatingly overdone Pome, but given her height, she is a very impressive player - she smacks everything hard and when it's on, her brand of tennis is compelling - her match against Azarenka in Miami last year was once of the best all year.  

2012 started fairly inauspiciously, losing 10-8 in the third in R2 in Melbourne to Greta Arn.  A series of R1 losses followed - with her gamestyle inconsistency is baked right in.  She had Vika by the throat in Miami in R4 before letting the world #1 get away, but reached the Final in Barcelona, QF in Rome, Brussels and Roland Garros.  She won Carlsbad in the summer and had a relatively solid end to the year, but she's still capable of throwing in ugly losses.

I can see Cibulkova cracking the top 10, albeit briefly, but her inconsistent go-for-broke style, perhaps necessary given her height, is too high risk to see her really threaten the best for long.

#14 - Maria Kirilenko (RUS)

Maria put together a very nice 2012, with a final in Pattaya, QF in Indian Wells, R4 in Miami, and, following an indifferent clay court season, a QF in Wimbledon where she pushed Aga Radwanska all the way in a very tough, very good match.  She backed that up at the Olympics, with a SF placing and then a final in New Haven.  She's more solid than she used to be, and more mentally resiliant within matches, which explains why she's ended 2012 on the verge of the top 10.

Can she break in?  I'm not so sure, but I wouldn't mind if she did.  She has a solid yet attractive game and is better at the net than most.  We could do worse.

#13 - Ana Ivanovic (SRB)

Where next for this miss?  World #1, Roland Garros champion, world #60-odd, no confidence whatsoever.  Slowly rebuilding, getting in shape, perhaps too much so, and on the verge of the top 10 once again after several years. 

2012 was characterised by going fairly deep in events then falling to the higher ranked ladies.  She lost to Kvitova in R4 in Melbourne, Wozniacki in Dubai, Sharapova in Indian Wells and then Venus in Miami.  Errani at the French, Azarenka at Wimbledon, Clijsters at the Olympics, Serena at the US Open.  And so on.  And this is what's holding Ana back now - she doesn't seem to have the belief that she should be among this cast list and so she loses to them when she has to face them.  Her game is perhaps less reliable than theirs - especially that painfull balltoss, and the backhand is still much more vulnerable than the forehand.

In 2013 Ana may yet sneak back into the top 10 but I don't see any significant breakthroughs occuring - she needs to start beating the best to be among the best, but the confidence and execution to do so continues to prove elusive.

#12 - Nadia Petrova (RUS)

It's a long time since that Petrova was world ranked 3 and after years in the relative wilderness, in 2012 Nadia found herself back on the cusp of the top 10.  Very talented, with a good serve, big game, and decent net play, Nadia's problems have mostly been between the ears - a confidence-sapping perfectionism that causes her to chastise herself out of matches - how very Russian.  

After a slow start to 2012 Nadia had a solid enough clay season - what used to be her best part of the year, but she got going by winning 's-Hertogenbosch, reaching SF in Carlsbad,  R4 at the US Open and winning the big tournament in Tokyo, beating 3 top 10 players en route.  Big points on offer there.  She then finished the year winning the Tournament of Also-Rans in Sofia, demolishing Wozniacki in the final.

So where next?  Now 30, and having split with Ricardo Sanchez, who unquestionably helped her rediscover some form, I predict another nosedive for Nadia, given her capacity for self-sabotage.  Given most of her points came in the second half of 2012, her ranking may float for a while, but then it could well crash through the floor, unless she can pull herself together.

#11 - Marion Bartoli (FRA)

Marion had a very solid, if unspectacular 2012 - she stuck around in tournaments but never lifted the trophy.  R3 in Melbourne, Final in Paris indoors, SF in Doha, QF in Indian Wells, SF in Miami.  A poor clay season (it's not good for her, ever) followed by a SF in Eastbourne, then a very bad loss at Wimbledon to Lucic, who was outside the top 100 at the time.  She rebounded by reaching the final in Carlsbad, and the US Open QF where she tussled well with Sharapova, and then the SF in Beijing to end the year.

This chick's weirdness is well documented, from the 2 fisted strokes off both sides, to the endless bouncing around on court, the serve quirks, the disputes with the FFT. In 2013 she may bounce back into the top 10 for a bit, or lurk around outside - that seems to be her level, but while she may win smaller titles and make life tricky for the top ladies, she's definitely second tier in my book, and will remain so in 2013.

What will 2013 Bring? Part 8 - WTA #26-50

With 2012 over and 2013 underway, I'm reviewing the 2012 season of the top 50 ATP and WTA players, and notable others, and making an informed guess (quiet at the back) at what 2013 is likely to bring.

Ladies Night - #26 - 50

#50 - Anabel Medina Garrigues (ESP)

The now veteran Spaniard has had a solid, if fairly unremarkable singles career, and 2013 was little exception.  Nothing much stands out for her in 2012 either, beyond reaching R3 in Melbourne before being forced to retire with injury - she racked up the sort of win one, lose one record that keeps you in the top 50 but not much more.

Though she has started 2013 brightly, I suspect AMG's best chances of notable success these days remain in the doubles.

#49 - Heather Watson (GBR)

2012 was something of a breakthrough year for Miz Watson.  Starting outside the top 100, it was all about getting established in main draw events.  The year started pretty slowly but she qualified and reached R2 at Roland Garros, reached R3 at Wimbledon, and ended the year winning her first WTA title at the smaller event in Osaka.  

She has improved aspects of her game, but to kick on, the gritty Watson will need to continue to add more offense to her serve and patterns of play, which can be a bit too grinding and expose her to being hit off the court.  If she can do this, then she may even be worth a top 20 spot - she is a fighter and that counts for a lot.

#48 - Lourdes Dominguez Lino (ESP)

Another unmemorable year for another Spanish veteran, a win at the ITF in Marseille being the standout.  She beat who she should most of the time, and rarely lost to who she shouldn't.  

At 31, nearing 32, I have to feel that her ranking in 2013 will end south of the top 50, though possibly a few decent runs in the clay season will keep her around.

#47 - Simona Halep (ROU)

This diminutive Romanian is still young, and has steadily improved for the last couple of years, scoring some top 20 wins in 2012.  Her standout result was in Brussels, where she reached the final and pushed Aga for a set before losing 75 60.  

I can see Simona getting into the top 30 in 2013 but I fear that at 5'6" and perhaps lacking in the same amount of power as, say, Cibulkova, she's got a hard road to get much higher, especially as she also seems to struggle with consistency.

#46 - Lucie Hradecka (CZE)

No doubt Lucie's best results in 2012 came in doubles with fellow Czech Hlavackova, but she did have some singles highlights too, including a final in Quebec City, and a run to the SFs in Madrid, beating Kvitova and Stosur before losing to Serena.  However, the rest of the year was fairly poor, with many R1 losses.  With a truly excellent record in doubles, including 2 slam finals and Olympic silver, in 2012, it's likely 2013 will again be more profitable on the doubles side.

#45 - Flavia Pennetta (ITA)

A tricky year for Flavia - with finals in Auckland and Acapulco, but then an injury keeping her out for the US Open Series, from which she has not yet returned.  

Her career has always been turbulent, with some good highs, like breaking into the top 10, followed by equally notable downturns, as her confidence drops off.  2013 may be her last chance to push back to the top 20 and make some noise, but we'll see how she responds to her comeback in Bogotá in February

#44 - Alize Cornet (FRA)

Alize is just 22, nearly 23, and if she's going to do something, it's getting to the time where she needs to start.  She made a bit of a splash as a teen, but it's been turbulent and the results have not flowed since.  2012 saw an ITF final in Nassau and the final in Strasbourg, and a title win in Bad Gastein, but she underperforms at the high ranking events, generally speaking, and this is what holds her back.

She reached 11 in 2009, and in 2013 I think she can push back towards the top 20, but it's time she started performing on the bigger s

#43 - Aleksandra Wozniak (CAN)

Aleks has struggled a bit since her comeback from a protracted injury layoff.  In 2012 she won ITF Nassau, and made the QFS in Montreal.

If she can stay healthy, in 2013 she can get back into the top 30.  She has a powerful game, and hits a heavy, yet inconsistent ball.  At 25, Wozniak needs to take advantage of her prime and fulfil the earlier promise that saw her winning Stanford.

#42 - Tsvetana Pironkova (BUL)

The 25 year old Bulgarian looks smaller than she actually is because her frame is so slight, but she's actually 5'11" and is quite an unpredictable force.  She'll beat Kerber in Doha but lose to Tatishvili in Budapest.  She made R16 at the US Open, losing to Ivanovic, and the SFs in the also-rans tournament in Sofia.  She had a memorable match with Sharapova at Wimbledon too.

As far as 2013 goes, I can't predict much change for Tsveti.  She may go on a tear with sliced forehands and flat backhands, but a lot of the time she'll lose disappointingly.  It is the way of things.

#41 - Sofia Arvidsson (SWE)

Sofia is another player whose confidence seems very brittle.  She won Memphis and reached the SFs in Moscow but seems unable to build on these sorts of results and really get on a roll.

Perhaps 2013 will be different, but I doubt it.  I don't recall Sofia having any major weapons and is bedevilled with the same inconsistency that seems to hurt many players at this level - you just never know what to expect from one week to the next.

#40 - Shuai Peng (CHN)

Once seen a successor to the likes of Li and Zheng, Peng hasn't been able to kick on quite like that.  She had a decent run to the R16 at Wimbledon, but otherwise it was fairly slim pickings in terms of stand-out results.  There was more week-in, week-out consistency, though - less R1 flame-outs.

Peng started 2012 at #17 and I think she can get back to the top 20 in 2013.  She has started brightly, with a SF in Shenzhen, so let's be optimistic.

#39 - Mona Barthel (GER)

The young German looked like one to watch in 2012 after some results in 2011 that made you sit up and take notice, but instead it rather became a case of sophomore year blues.  She won Hobart, reached the QFs at Paris indoors, but the rest of the year was rough, with only SF in Quebec City and Bastad to break through the gloom of numerous first round losses.

I think 2013 will see Mona getting back to winning ways as she adjusts to the tour at this level and finds her feet again.  I expect her to get into the top 20, and at 21, she could be around there for quite a while.

#38 - Sloane Stephens (USA)

Given the USA is a country that has desperately looking for signs of the NextBigThing, as the Williams retirements begin to seem possible in the coming years, Sloane Stephens has handled it pretty well. The 19-year-old started 2012 at #96 and ended in the top 40.  Not Williams-style breakout, but great progress in a game that is in general seeing less breakout moments and more evolutionary rises to the top.  Things started to take off on the clay, with a SF in Strasbourg and then a R16 run at Roland Garros, and there were solid results thereafter.

Sloane has started 2013 brightly, and gave Serena quite a match in Brisbane.  I see top 20 here, she seems to have bit more fire than her languid demeanour would suggest.  Can she go higher?  Not sure, but she's still very young and she's on the right track.

#37 - Sabine Lisicki (GER)

2012 was a bit of a wash-out for the likeable yet injury-prone German.  A R16 run in Melbourne and QF run in Wimbledon are the stasndouts from an otherwise forgettable season.

2013 has to be about more consistency and staying injury-free.  Sabine has a big game, and never seems to be able to channel it effectively enough.  Now 22, perhaps the time has arrived, to get back into the top 20 and look towards the top 10?

#36 - Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (RUS)

The most promising of the younger Russians, Ana seemed to take a step back in 2012, slipping from 16 to 36.  Indeed, reaching the Washington final is the only bright spot - the rest of the year is R1 losses or one win, one loss situations.

Nastya is a good height, has great weight of shot, and is still young at 21.  In 2013 she should reverse this slide and get back into the top 20.  She started the right way, with a final in Brisbane.  May it continue.

#35 - Francesca Schiavone (ITA)

2012 was a poor year by the standards of Fran's recent years, with only brief flashes - winninG Strasbourg, making the R16 in Wimbledon.  It's been a drastic decline from ending 2011 just outside the top 10.  Indeed, the second half of the year was a virtual write-off.  

Now 32, Fran seems to be running on fumes and it's hard to be sure what she's still hoping to achieve - perhaps she still competes for the love of the game, but if so, you'd be hard pushed to see it on court.  Her unexpected Roland Garros triumph is her career triumph, and the joy with which she seized the moment was wonderful - it makes this inept drift back into irrelevance harder to watch.

#34 - Carla Suarez-Navarro (ESP)

This young Spaniard seemed to promise much a couple of years ago, but she seems to have settled into the same erratic pattern of many of her contemporaries.  Estoril Final, Barcelona SF, Beijing QF and a R3 at Roland Garros doesn't seem a huge amount to show for a year.  She has a glorious one-handed backhand but at 5'4" she's perhaps a throwback to an earlier era, one that struggles to compete in the glamazon power-game stakes of the modern WTA.

I think Carla is perhaps ranked about where she should be - she can bounce up if she gets on a roll and pulls off some decent wins - it's happened before, like thw QF run in Melbourne, but otherwise, she'll hang around where she is.

#33 - Christina McHale (USA)

McHale showed steady progress in 2012, but perhaps will be looking to kick on a bit in 2013.  A solid but unspectacular year, R3 at 3 of the slams, and many R16s on the main tour, there's a consistency here that many of her peers lack, but then there are few peaks either.

To get higher, Christina is going to have to lose less matches against opponents she should beat, and that might mean dealing with her nerves better in tight situations - there were some memorable matches in Eastbourne against Wozniacki and then Pavlyuchenkova that stand out.  Not yet 21, this should come in time for the New Jersey native.

#32 - Daniela Hantuchova (SVK)

Daniela has been around FOREVER - I mean, I remember them discussing her being too thin way back in 2002, and yet she's only 29. However, the promise of a couple of years ago, when she made the SFs in Melbourne, seem distant, and she seems past her prime now. She won Pattaya City and reached the finals in Luxembourg but otherwise it was slim pickings for the willowy Slovakian.

She might experience a slight rankings bounce in 2013 but it seems like Daniela's lot now is to cause the occasional upset and then get out of the way. A shame - it once seemed like she had more promise.  

#31 - Urszula Radwanska (POL)

The younger Pole has lagged behind her sister all along, and was sidetracked by some injury issues, but in 2012 finally looked ready to push on.  Ula won ITF Birmingham, then reached the final in 'S-Hertogenbosch from qualifying before losing to Petrova.  From there she had a solid summer, posting consistent R16s at tour events, then SFs in Tashkent and Guangzhou.

Ula tends to play with a bit more power than her sister and is a bit more erratic, but I think she can join Aga in the top 20 at least.  She's now 22 and this would be a good time to make her move.

#30 - Tamira Paszek (AUT)

Tamira is another poster-girl for inconsistency, yet she's still younger than you think, at 22.  It was all about that Wimbledon, wasn't it.  The amazing Wozniacki match, and the run to the QFs before losing to Azarenka.  But there was also the Eastbourne win, and a QF in Montreal.  However, that was it for the notable achievements as the inconsistency took over once again.

I think Tamira is top 30 quality but may struggle to get much higher consistently with her small stature - she has to take a lot of risks, and sometimes they pay off - and sometimes they don't.  If I were a share rating agency, I would rate Tamira as a Hold.  

#29 - Yaroslava Shvedova (KAZ)

The funky one, who plays for Kazakhstan, had a terrific run back into the top 30 in 2012.  A bunch of early ITFs and then a run through qualifying to the RG QF, and a R16 at Wimbledon (+ golden set) helped to drag her back into contention from an injury plagued 2011.  Things fizzled out a bit after the US Open, but she's well placed to begin 2013.

I think Slava can hang around 20-25 in the rankings with maybe the odd burst into the top 20, which would beat her career high so far.

#28 - Klara Zakopalova (CZE)

Klara was in decent form in 2012.  Nearly 30 now, she was extremely solid throughout the season, with SF in Paris indoors, Final in ITF Prague, R16 at the French, SF in Eastbourne and numerous QFs.  

She's started 2013 in good form so maybe she can have another great year?  She's now at a career high, can she break the top 20?

#27 - Sorana Cirstea (ROU)

At the risk of over-using a word, Cirstea is erratic.  However, 2012 was less so for the Romanian.  She made a number of QFs and SFs throughout the season, and a couple of R3s at slams helped to hold her ranking up.

Sori has a big game but can be inconsistent within matches, but she's still only 21.  She can kick on, and with her good looks, perhaps she can join the ranks of the poster girls in 2013.

#26 - Jie Zheng (CHN)

Again, an inconsistent 2012 (are you seeing a pattern yet?).  Won Auckland and made R16 in Melbourne, then did nothing until the SF in Birmingham from qualification.  The rest of the year was also unspectacular.  A shame - the tiny Chinese has a fun game and can get into some amazing battles - but it seems like she can't bring it consistently, and loses to some surprising players - Parmentier, for example.

She's nearly 30 so I think the progam is unlikely to change now.  More of the same - she may create some surprising upsets, have some incredible battles, but then she'll flame out for several weeks thereafter.