What will 2013 Bring? Part 7 - ATP #1-2

With 2012 over and 2013 rushing towards us, I'm reviewing the season of the top 50 ATP and WTA players, and notable others, and making an informed guess (quiet at the back) at what 2013 is likely to bring.

Time to consider the top 2 male players in the world...

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#2 - Roger Federer (SUI)

Considering this year, Roger won his first Grand Slam since the 2010 Australian Open, 17th in total for those still counting, and won another 5 titles besides, including 3 at Masters 1000 level, and on top of all that returned to the #1 ranking for a spell, besting Pete Sampras's mark for most weeks spent overall at the #1 spot, you'd have to chalk 2012 up as a successful year for the Swiss maestro.  And if it had some setbacks too then, well, it's not 2006 anymore.  

The year starting a bit unevenly, with a rare walkover withdrawal from Doha in the SF, then a somewhat lacklustre display in losing to Rafa in the SF of the Australian Open after having won the first set.  Eyebrows were raised when he lost to Isner on clay in the Davis Cup in a disastrous tie for the Swiss side at home.  Nevertheless, he rebounded well, winning Rottedam, Dubai and Indian Wells on the trot, including wins over Murray and Nadal.  A slightly surprising loss to Roddick in Miami followed, but perhaps less so considering his energy levels at that point.  Again, he bounced back quickly with a title in Madrid on the slippery blue clay, but in Rome Djokovic asserted his credentials, dismissing Roger in the SF.  At Roland Garros, Roger survived a 2 set deficit to a resurgent Juan Martin Del Potro, who was clearly starting to believe he could tangle with the best once more.  In the end, though, it took Novak to stop Roger again, this time in straight sets, some vengeance for Djokovic for the SF surprise loss the year before.  Roger reached the final in Halle but lost to Tommy Haas there, one more of those occasionally surprising losses Roger throws in these days.

At Wimbledon, however, Roger was ready.  Disappointed by his 2 QF exits the last two years, he had a point to prove, and although he was 2 sets down to Benneteau in R3, he fought through, survived a tussle with Malisse, humbled Youzhny, and then handed a surprisingly easy 4 set defeat to Novak Djokovic, who seemed well below par.  In the final he would face Andy Murray, who he had beaten in 2 previous Grand Slam finals.  Murray was in his fourth, and still yet to win one, and in front of a home crowd to boot.  Nevertheless the Scot started brightly, winning a tight first set, and coming very close to winning a second.  Roger had other ideas though, and rolled back the years with some vintage grass-court tennis and levelled the match.  Rain intervened early in the third set, and the roof was closed.  If anything, Roger's level rose even more under the canvas, as the elements of wind and variable light were taken out of the equation.  He took a vice-like grip on the match.  Murray continued to play well, and tried to find solutions, but it wasn't to be.  Roger played the occasion like a virtuoso, knowing exactly what play to use and when, and though it was a tight four sets, Roger played the better tennis on the day, lifted his 7th Wimbledon crown (matching Sampras and Renshaw for all-time highest number of titles), and with it, secured a return to the #1 ranking and guaranteed he would also break the Sampras #1 longest duration record too.  Naturally he was overjoyed to recover the Wimbledon crown that had been his first Grand Slam win, and he went into the Olympics high in confidence.  

He shook off an early loss in the doubles, and an early blip against Falla in R1, and reached the SFs relatively comfortably.  There he met Juan Martin Del Potro, who had taken him to 5 at the French.  This time, over best of three but with a long final set, Delpo came even closer, as they passed 6-6 in the final set, and kept going.  The match wore on for over four hours, with nothing to separate them, until at last, Roger, perhaps drawing on the memories of his epic 17-15 5th set win over Roddick in 2009, prevailed 16-14 in the third.  There's no question the length and difficulty of Roger's SF aided Murray, who, relatively speaking, breezed past Djokovic in 24 games total.  Nevertheless, nothing should be taken away from Murray's performance - he came out full of confidence, displayed mental resolve like never before in a big match, and never gave Roger an opening to really exploit.  Roger was flat, and many tactics he had previously employed against Murray weren't working - a combination of Murray's better play and Roger's own jadedness.  Roger had to settle for the singles Silver medal, Murray winning Gold in 3 straight sets, dramatically reversing the Wimbledon final result of four weeks earlier.  

Roger professed himself satisfied with his Olympic efforts, and moved on to Cincinnati, where he lifted the title, handing Djokovic a very rare bagel in the final as part of a 6-0 7-6(7) win.  Djokovic failed to medal at the Olympics, losing the Bronze match to Del Potro, and seemed to have a bit of a hangover from that.  Going into the US Open, Roger, as #1 seed once again, must have been feeling good about his chances.  3 straight sets wins and then a walkover as Mardy Fish withdrew with medical problems that killed his season, and Roger was in good shape for his QF against Berdych.  And then one of those inexplicably flat performances happened, where Roger just seemed to have little command over all the weapons at his disposal.  Berdych played an excellent match, his hard, flat hitting taking a lot of options away from Roger, and even though the Czech flinched and lost the third set, he reset and hit back decisively in the fourth.  Roger played a poor match by his standards, out of nowhere, and he seemed rather shell-shocked by the loss - it seemed to hurt more than usual.

He won his two Davis Cup playoff matches against the Netherlands, and then headed out to Shanghai, where he lost to Murray in surprising fashion in the SFs.  He seemed irritable, out of sorts, and his game, particularly his serving, was off, including the bizarre spectacle of him serving three double faults consecutively to hand over a break of serve, and a bizarre interlude where he seemed to gently pressuring the umpire to suspend player longer than necessary due to a few drops of rain.  Murray's game has always irritated Roger, but rarely has this irritation been given such visible expression.  Back in Switzerland, Roger made the finals of his beloved Basel event, but Juan Martin Del Potro, who had been running Roger increasingly close all season, finally got the better of him, though it needed a final set tiebreak to do it.  At the World Tour Finals, Delpo struck again, handing Roger another 3 set defeat in the RR stages, but Roger won against Tipsarevic and Ferrer, and then defeated Andy Murray in the SFs before losing a tight match to Novak Djokovic in the finals.

As said earlier, 2012 must be considered a successful year for Roger, and at 31 he's still been competing with the very best, getting to the latter stages of virtually every big event he has played.  Will 2013 bring more of the same?   In my view, yes and no.  I expect him to continue to threaten at the Slams and Masters 1000s - losses against all but the best at these tournaments are likely to continue to be rare.  But I don't see him winning another slam in 2013 - indeed I feel the 7th Wimbledon title in 2012 will bookend his slam career with the first one won there, back in 2003, and he will win no more.  My feeling is, as Roger begins to reduce his playing schedule slightly, that while he wants to continue to Rio, he has absolutely nothing left to prove now, and as his twin girls get older, his focus might become more split.  Though it may take a few years, in 2013 I expect to see Roger slowly beginning the disengagement process from the hectic lifestyle of pro tennis.  A few more weeks off, less worry about where the ranking is and more focus on being ready for a select handful of tournaments.  At these, he will still be dangerous, but younger, and perhaps hungrier, players now seem regularly capable of having the measure of him.  We shouldn't feel sad about that, it is the cycle of things, and he's already had more wonderful years than one mortal has any reason to expect.  That should be celebrated.

#1 - Novak Djokovic (SRB)

2012 was a genuine mixed bag for Novak Djokovic.  It began with an amazing feat of sustained endurance, hit some very slippery patches in the middle, but ended with a feeling that equilibrium had been restored, which augurs well for the coming season.

It began, of course, at the Australian Open, where he beat Ferrer in 3 sets, Murray in a 5 hour 5 set marathon, and then Nadal in another 5 setter that ran closer to 6 hours - an extraordinary display of mental and physical fitness. This was his 5th Grand Slam win, and he now held 3 concurrently - only the French Open eluded him for the Career Grand Slam, and if he won it in 2012 he would become the first since Laver to hold all 4 majors at the same time, albeit not in the same calendar year.  Much was now on the line.

Djokovic lost to Murray in the SFs in Dubai - not necessarily a major surprise since Andy seemed better against Novak over best of 3 than over best of 5.  Novak surprisingly lost to Isner in the SFs in Indian Wells, albeit it took a final set tiebreak, which can be something of a lottery.  In any case, he bounced back by winning Miami, beating Murray in the final and didn't drop a set all tournament.  On the clay in Monte Carlo, he faced Rafa in the final, but lost comfortably in straight sets, halting a run of wins over the Spaniard since Indian Wells 2011 at seven.  He lost in the QFs of Madrid, deploring the slippery blue surface, and then fell again against Rafa in the final of Rome - closer this time but same result.  The 2011 situation, where Novak really seemed to be in Rafa's head, had clearly unwound.  Novak pressed on at Roland Garros, defeating Tsonga and Federer en route to the final, albeit not without drama.  He was 2 sets down to Andreas Seppi in R4, and Tsonga had him on the ropes in the fourth set in the QF, but Novak escaped both situations, his mental strength once again proving a decisive factor.  Nevertheless, in the final, which was ultimately completed on Monday due to rain, Nadal once again took the spoils - he needed 4 sets to do it, but he completed the sweep over Novak on the clay in 2012.

This was disappointing by the highest standards Novak was now compared to, and matters didn't improve at Wimbledon.  Although the defending champion made it to the SFs, he played a disappointingly flat match, seemed to lack belief or conviction, and ultimately was handled more comfortably than anyone would expect by Roger Federer.  Novak's ability to take a disappointment and bounce back quickly would be tested a number of times in 2012, but perhaps no time more so than the Olympic Games.  A proud Serb, who no doubt wanted to bring home the Gold for his nation, he nevertheless seemed to succumb to the overwhelming pressure of hope and expectation that he somehow had not felt as severely in Davis Cup - perhaps due to the team nature of that competition.  In any case, though he made it to the SF match, he played a somewhat nervy match against Murray, who handled the occasion with great aplomb, and advanced to the Gold Medal Match 7-5 7-5, with Djokovic faltering at the end of both sets in uncharacteristic fashion.   This must have been deeply disappointing, and he was unable to find solace in a Bronze medal, as Del Potro claimed this honour for Argentina, leaving the Serb empty-handed.  

And yet, Novak did rebound quickly, with a Masters 1000 win in Toronto the following week, and a Cincy Final, where he was handed a bagel by Federer but only just failed to take it to a third set.  He seemed back to his imperious best in New York at the US Open, avenging himself upon Del Potro in straight sets in the QFs, and after a very slow start, dismissing Ferrer in 4 sets in a SF match that was completed on the Sunday.  This put Novak at a disadvantage, as Murray's SF had finished on Saturday, and in the end this might have had more impact than has generally been acknowledged.  The US Open Final began in extremely blustery conditions, which Murray handled better.  Though the first two sets were turbulent, torrid affairs, Murray mentally remained stronger more consistently, and won them both.  But as the wind calmed slightly and Djokovic dug in for the fight, Murray hit a physical wall, and Djokovic claimed the third and fourth sets quickly relative to the first two.  However, the match was now 4 hours old, and Djokovic seemed physically spent by his efforts to get back into it.  Murray took a double break lead, and while Djokovic briefly looked like he might get back into it, cramping visibly set in, hampering his movement.  Murray tasted blood and liked it, and calmly snatched the set, and the title, from the defending champion.

At this point in the season, things were looking a tad grim for Novak, relatively speaking. Pushed back to #2 by a resurgent Federer in the mid-season, he had endured a steady series of losses against the other big combatants - Nadal on the clay, particularly Roland Garros, Federer at Wimbledon, Murray and Del Potro at the Olympics, and Murray again at the US Open.  It seemed like his capacity to win the big matches was not what it had been.  However, he quickly dispelled this myth.  In Shanghai, he saved 5 match points in the final against Murray, to come back and win in 3 sets. Though he lost early in Paris, he handed defeats to Tsonga, Murray, Berdych, Del Potro and Federer to lift the title at the O2 arena, his second season-ending championship, and re-establish some authority over his fellow top 10 players.  In doing so, he recaptured the #1 ranking, and though his year was a turbulent one, he started and ended it on top.

Here's what I expect in 2013.  With Nadal's prospects very uncertain, and anno domini increasingly likely to impact Federer, common wisdom suggests Murray will be Djokovic's great rival in the coming season.  I would concur with this, although I think there's a chance that Del Potro and someone else, perhaps Berdych, might muscle their way in at one or more of the biggest events.  I do expect Djokovic to maintain the #1 ranking, provided he avoids any injury concerns, which he has largely been able to do since the end of 2011.  Djokovic is much more consistent when compared to Murray, and he is at least one level above Murray on clay, and this is likely to prove decisive in the rankings battle.  When it comes to the majors, I would expect Djokovic to lift at least 1, more likely 2, and perhaps it's time for him to win Roland Garros and complete his own Career Grand Slam.  It should be another stellar year for the brightest current star of the tennis sky.

What will 2013 Bring? Part 6 - ATP #3-5

With 2012 over and 2013 rushing towards us, I'm reviewing the season of the top 50 ATP and WTA players, and notable others, and making an informed guess (quiet at the back) at what 2013 is likely to bring.

Time to consider the players ranked between 3 and 5 in the current rankings...

All images remain copyright of their respective owners.

#5 - David Ferrer (ESP)

Anybody writing the story of David Ferrer's career has a fine line to walk, because it can be hard to tell, depending on how you look at it, whether he is underrated or overrated.  It goes without saying that he has had a career that a huge amount of his fellow players would kill for.  He's spent a long time in the top 10 over the last several years, he's been in 4 Grand Slam semi-finals, he's been in the final of the World Tour Finals, and he's won a Masters 1000 title, and been in the final several other times.  It's because of these achievements that you can see Ferrer as underrated, given how little publicity and respect these have tended to get - when the commentators refer to him at all, it's often a touch patronisingly, referring to his small stature, and his appetite for hard work, grinding opponents down, and fighting.  He rarely earns respect for the underlying talent and drive that make all of this possible.  And yet, he's world #5, but never been in a Grand Slam final, and at age 30, seems unlikely ever to do so.  In that sense, people can see him as overrated, given that though world #5 and a very tricky opponent, the tennis world at large expect him to get out of the way when the big guns show up in the latter rounds.  For what it's worth, my take on it is that he should be given credit and respect for what he has been able to do in the game, and if he isn't quite good enough to topple the Big 4 in the latter stages of big events, then there's no shame in that - neither can most players.

Ferrer spent almost the entire year in the fifth spot in the rankings, apart from brief stretches where he fell to sixth.  Beginning with a win at the tournament in Auckland, he fell to Djokovic in the QFs in Australia, but added two more titles in Buenos Aires on the clay.   An unexpected loss to Istomin in Indian Wells was followed up with a QF run in Miami, where he again lost to Djokovic.  He lost to Bellucci in Monte Carlo, but then went on a run where he only lost to the very best - Nadal in Barcelona, Rome and Roland Garros, and Federer in Madrid.  He won Den Bosch on grass and was stopped by Andy Murray in the Wimbledon QFs.  He won Bastad, lost unexpectedly to Nishikori at the Olympics and Wawrinka in Cincinnati, but then made the US Open SF, where Djokovic once again proved too strong.  A forgettable Asian stretch (losses to Lu and Benneteau) was forgotten, after winning Valencia and his first Masters 1000 title in Paris Bercy, beating newcomer Jerzy Janowicz in the final.  At the WTFs he beat Del Potro and Tipsarevic, but lost to Federer, and his final act was to win the two singles rubbers in the Davis Cup Final, though Spain eventually lost 3-2 to the Czechs.  With 7 titles in 2012, including a Masters 1000, 2 SFs and 2 QFs at the slams, it was Ferrer's best year - and this at age 30.

So what does 2013 have to offer him?  It's hard to see him backing up this season in full or improving on it, so I expect his results to slip back a little bit - not out of the top 10, but perhaps ceding the #5 position in the rankings.  With a game that relies on speed, the ability to hang in rallies, defend superbly and attack when circumstances allow, age is likely to hurt Ferrer's game more than perhaps those who have built their game around their height and power advantage.  What more does he still want to get out of the game?  How much desire will be left?  Only he can know.

#4 - Rafael Nadal (ESP)

2012 was undoubtedly a year of two halves for Rafa.  He started the year ranked 2, and remained there while actively playing, but wound up at 4 by the season end.  Already guaranteed legend status in the game at the age of 26, Rafa would add a few other records to an already burgeoning list before injury struck and closed down his season very early.

The year started much as 2011 had gone, with a Grand Slam final appearance, at the Australian Open, which he lost to Novak Djokovic - making it three in a row - in a near-six-hour epic, Novak winning 7-5 in the 5th set.  Even early on in the season, however, there were signs of the trouble to come.  Rafa lost to Federer in the SFs of Indian Wells, and reached the SFs of Miami, only to hand Andy Murray the walkover, citing tendinitis in his left knee.  This did only delay him a couple of weeks, and he was back to winning ways on the clay, winning his record 8th consecutive Monte Carlo title, and beating Djokovic in the final, reversing a series of 7 straight losses dating back to Indian Wells 2011.  After winning the now-customary Barcelona title, he suffered a blip on the troubled smurf-turf of Madrid, losing to Verdasco in R3 and panning the surface in the most blistering terms.  However, he restored equilibrium in Rome, adding a second win over Djokovic, and adding a third when he lifted his 7th Roland Garros weeks later, the most won by any one player since the tournament went International in 1925.  It had been a triumphant reversal of his recent trend against the Serb.

Yet, behind the scenes, under the surface, trouble was already brewing.  The QF loss to Kohlschreiber in Halle raised few eyebrows, but the R2 loss to Lukas Rosol in 5 sets sent shockwaves throughout the tennis world.  Although he looked fine on the match court, speculation immediately started that there was a physical problem.  In the weeks that followed, detail dripped out that knee problems were to blame, although the story seemed to change numerous times as to the nature of the issue.  He withdrew from the Olympics, citing it as one of the saddest moments of his career, and then from US Open extremely early.  At this point it seemed likely that his season was over, and though it took a while for this to be confirmed, he didn't pick up a racquet competitively for the rest of the year.  A half-year of renewed hope was brought to a crashing halt by further injury concerns that seem a step-change in seriousness compared to previous episodes.  

As for 2013, speculation is rife.  Training was underway and expectation was that he would resume competitive play at the Abu Dhabi exhibition event, but this was stymied when he withdrew late in the day, due to a stomach virus.  He shortly thereafter withdrew from the Australian Open citing the same problem, even though this event was still over 2 weeks away.  The suggestion is that he would not be ready to play best of 5 matches without some tournament preparation and he would not be in a position to get any, so the best approach would be to come back on the South American clay.  This may or may not make sense, according to taste, but what it has done is reignited speculation that all is still not well with the knees, and they're just not ready to say so yet.  The Nadal camp is not the most forthcoming with the facts at its disposal, and there may yet be more to this story than we're currently being told.   

In any case, the new plan is that he will return in the spring, and all eyes will be on whether he can hit the ground running and return to his peak form quickly - he will have little time to do so.  The way things are unfolding, the only thing on his ranking soon will be his clay court points, and if he fails to defend a significant chunk of these, his ranking will plummet.  Already likely to drop out of the top 4, the climb back could get that much steeper.  For my part, I think Rafa can get back to his peak form, but I think it will be a slower process than in the past, and 2013 will be a year of slow rebuilding - he may not be part of the biggest conversations all year.  As for the speculation that this is it - and he's actually done for good - while I think this is an understandable fear, given the unfolding events, I still think that's way too premature.  I guess I won't believe that until I hear it from the horse's mouth, and I still think there's a couple more years in him, if he manages his schedule better than he has thus far in his career.

#3 - Andy Murray (GBR)

This was the year when it all changed.  This was the year when the question was answered.  This was the year when doubt was finally silenced, and the year that Great Britain's wait ended.   Yes, that silly, ever-increasing number thrown in his face week-in, week-out for years, can finally be consigned to the ash-heap of history where it belongs.  Andy Murray, Great Britain from Dunblane, Scotland, won his first Grand Slam, fulfilling the promise he showed from a young age, and the burdensome expectations of a nation and a tennis punditry that rarely failed to insist it should happen, and simultaneously explain why it wouldn't.

It all started with the decision to hire Ivan Lendl, which will go down in history as one of the most prescient picks ever, whatever comes next.  Andy needed a coach to fine-tune his game.  More, he needed someone who'd been where he was, on the cusp of glory but unable to touch it.  He needed someone who understood what that felt like - and what it felt like when glory was finally in his grasp - and how to go from the one to the other.

They started work in Australia in 2012 and after a bumpy start, Andy lifted the Brisbane title immediately.  He looked imperious in Melbourne against an admittedly pretty comfortable draw, until running into Djokovic in the SFs.  Andy lost in 5 sets, but it was a war.  A 5 hour, no prisoners taken, no quarter given, war.  In the fifth, Novak was comfortably ahead and the thing looked done, but Andy fought back, and had break points to leave him serving for the match.  He failed to convert and Novak broke to win.  Djokovic would go on to even greater feats in the final, while Andy was left to rue the loss - though all involved were comfortable that he had left it all out on the court.

A turbulent period followed.  He reached the final in Dubai, beating Berdych and Djokovic but losing to Federer, but then threw in an inexplicable 64 62 loss to Guillermo Garcia-Lopez in Indian Wells in the first match.  GGL is a handy player and he played well, but this was odd, and confirmed a pattern of the last few years in Indian Wells, where Andy has been poor.  He bounced back to reach the final of Miami, helped by 2 walkovers, one of which was Rafa in the SF.  There he lost to Djokovic.  The clay season was forgettable, with losses to Berdych in Monte Carlo, Raonic in Barcelona, and Gasquet in Rome.  Andy made the choice to skip Madrid and given the troublesome nature of that event in 2012, I doubt he regretted it for a moment.  Roland Garros was unremarkable also, dropping in the QFs to David Ferrer in 4 hard-fought sets.  Then on the grass, he lost his first match to Nicolas Mahut in a final set tiebreak.  Again, Mahut is a good player, especially on grass, but this was unexpected.

At this stage, the knives were beginning to come out for the Murray-Lendl partnership.  Born in optimism and seeming to bear early fruit in Australia and Dubai, the results had dried up a bit, and the punditocracy was beginning to question whether Lendl, inexperienced as a coach, was leading Murray into confusion rather than clarity.  Some were predicting the partnership was nearing its expiration date.  Seldom have events proved them so spectacularly wrong.

Andy's Wimbledon draw was tricky.  Opening against Davydenko was tougher on paper than in reality, the veteran Russian no lover of the turf.  But Karlovic is always a risky proposition, and then Baghdatis, who had a win over Andy before at Wimbledon.  Cilic followed, and then David Ferrer, who beat Andy at Roland Garros.  This was grass, though, and while Ferrer was more competent on the surface than he's given credit for, having won titles on grass in the Netherlands, it was still advantage Andy, and he battled through 4 very tough sets to get the win.  Tsonga, who came through the bottom quarter after Rafa's loss, awaited, but Andy was able to overcome the occasion and the opponent, and became the first British male to contest the Wimbledon singles final since 1938.  Federer lay in wait, and though Andy started brightly, and played much better than in his 3 previous Slam finals, Roger rolled back the years with some of his best grass court tennis, and denied Andy in 4 sets.  Roger lifted the title but Andy won some hearts at least, with an emotional, choked-up post-match speech, telling us that he was getting closer.

Closer he was, perhaps closer than even he realised.  It's always darkest just before dawn, they say.  The days following his fourth Slam final defeat were bleak ones.  He now shared with Lendl the record of losing his first 4 slam finals.  No man had lost his first 5.  In the meantime, Andy had to get up off the canvas quickly, as he would be back on the Wimbledon lawns in short order for the Olympics, back in the UK for the first time since 1948.  Olympic tennis has gone from strength to strength in terms of the desirability of winning a medal among the players, and this year promised to be the most competitive since it returned as a full medal sport in 1988.  Andy was looking for Gold - team GB had gone on a tear after a slow start, and Andy felt, and wanted to add to, the momentum.  He breezed through to the SF with one set dropped, and then dismissed Novak Djokovic in straight sets to reach the Gold Medal Match.  Federer once again lay in wait, 28 days after breaking his heart on this very court.  Yet, in a storyline the script-writers would never dream of writing, knowing they'd never get away with it, Andy handed Roger a straight sets defeat on Centre Court for the loss of 7 games.  No doubt, Roger was jaded from his epic 19-17 win over Del Potro in the SFs, but Andy found the perfect antidote to a Wimbledon final loss, and finally he had a big title.  Not a Grand Slam, something different, something that doesn't fit comfortably into the delineated annual tennis schedule, but something special nonetheless.

No time to celebrate, as ATP schedules wait for no man.  The quicker than usual transition to hardcourt bothered Andy's bothersome left knee, and he pulled out of Canada after winning one match, then lost to Chardy in R3 in Cincy.  He arrived in New York a bit jaded, and didn't seem to be handling the heat well in his first match against Bogomolov.  Things became torrid in R3 when, on another hot day, he needed deep reserves of fight to overcome a lively Feliciano Lopez.  A masterclass against Raonic under the lights followed, but it was back to the wars in the QF, where Cilic led 63 51 before choking magnificently.  The SF was played under very tricky windy conditions.  Berdych, who had despatched Federer with surprising ease in the QF, lurked.  He's a player who Andy struggles against - when Berdych's flat, hard hitting is on song, he is deadly.  However, the wind stymied Berdych, and Andy was able to get it done, surviving a late challenge from the Czech.  Another final, then, and the spectre of surpassing Lendl's "first 4 finals lost" record loomed large.  Djokovic was the opponent, and the wind was the third player on court in yet another Monday final.  Andy went two sets up, handling the conditions better, but then hit the wall as Djokovic resurged and the wind calmed, and at 2 sets all the situation looked desperate.  However, there was one more twist in store, as Andy ran out to a 3-0 double break lead,Djokovic beginning to physically wilt.  Though broken once, Andy rebroke to restore the 2 break advantage, and, looking calm, stepped up to the line and served out for his first Grand Slam title.

Relief was the overriding emotion, he said, finally getting that monkey of history, of expectation, of self-imposed pressure off his back.  He walked like a man for the first time able to stand tall.  It took some time to sink in, and it needed some adjustment.  The Lendl partnership had spectacularly borne fruit - but what next?  Not to mention the rest of the season to be played.  Andy headed out to Asia as scheduled but success was a bit elusive.  He lost to Raonic in the SFs in Tokyo, and to Novak in the Shanghai final, having had 5 match points.  He slumped to newcomer Jerzy Janowicz indoors in Paris, and ended the year at the World Tour Finals, beating Berdych and Tsonga, but losing to Djokovic in the RR and then Federer in the SFs.

So what is next?  Well, the partnership with Lendl seems to be one they're both happy to talk about in the long term.  They've worked hard together in the off-season for a sustained block for the first time, and Andy's sights are set on more slams and the #1 ranking.  Can he do it?  My prediction is that there's another slam coming - possibly in Australia, possibly at Wimbledon, but the #1 ranking will remain out of reach.  Andy is, at times, impressively inconsistent, and to get to #1 these days, you need consistency, and you need at least good results on clay, if not great.  These two factors lead me to think Andy will struggle to ascend the rankings mountain to the very top, but it's going to be fun watching him try.

What will 2013 Bring? Part 5 - ATP #6-10

With 2012 over and 2013 rushing towards us, I'm reviewing the season of the top 50 ATP and WTA players, and notable others, and making an informed guess (quiet at the back) at what 2013 is likely to bring.

Time to consider the players ranked between 6 and 10 in the current rankings...

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10 - Richard Gasquet (FRA)

A year of good progress for the mercurial Frenchman.  Starting 2012 at 19, he ended at 10 - perhaps, at 26, Richard has realised he has been wasting his talents?  Then again, he seems shy of the limelight and found the pressure of living up to a top 10 billing to be too much, reverting to the role of spear-carrier in the French attack force.  He has, however, posted a worthy season, with R16 performances at all 4 slams, a final at the 1000 is Toronto, a title in Bangkok and a SF in Basel.  He has performed consistently all year under the tutelage of Ricardo Piatti and Sebastien Grosjean.  However, I do not expect him to kick on higher into the top 10 - there have been too many predictions that he is finally ready to embrace the highest echelon of the game, and each time, these predictions have been hollow.  I still believe he is more comfortable when he is not the Frenchman expected to be pushing for the slams, and something in him will continue to keep him his own worst enemy.

#9 - Janko Tipsarevic (SRB)

Having crept into the top 10 at the end of 2011, Janko has held the spot for the entire season, spending most of it ranked 9, creeping up to 8 for a spell mid-year before returning. The Serb was relatively disappointing at the slams, epic QF loss to David Ferrer at the US Open aside, however he posted two Masters 1000 SFs, in Toronto and Madrid, Won the Stuttgart tournament, and was runner up in Gstaad and Chennai.  QF or better at six additional tournaments speaks of a very consistent year, impressively backing up his top 10 credentials.  My instincts suggest he will continue to be dangerous in 2013, although perhaps from just outside the top 10, rather than just inside it.  I struggle to see Janko kicking on higher than his best of 8, in any case - he can be very dangerous in "occasion" matches but can be vulnerable to odd losses to players he should handily beat.  If he is going to push higher, it probably has to be now - time is not on his side.

#8 - Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (FRA)

Jo set up camp in the top 10 of the ATP rankings in mid 2011, and he hasn't left since.  Reaching a high of 5 in mid 2012, he has drifted slowly down to 8 throughout the rest of the year - an early loss to Klizan at the US Open not helping matters there.  Still, he posted a SF at Wimbledon, losing relatively comfortably to Andy Murray, and a QF at Roland Garros, where he had Novak Djokovic well and truly on the ropes before letting the wily Serb off the hook.  No better than QF a Masters 1000 level, at least he made 5 of them, and he added titles in Metz and Doha, as well as finals in Stockholm and Beijing.  It's all very worthy, but somehow the mercurial warrior who slashed his way to the Aussie Open final in 2008 seems to have his sword blunted a little bit.  A promising H2H vs Djokovic in the early goings has been turned right around, and I fear the self-belief against the Big 4 is not as strong as it needs to be.  To crack open that little club requires a lot of self-assurance that you belong there, and as good as he is, I don't think Jo has that.  He has become more of a baseliner as his career has developed, and this has probably made him a more consistent player, but also a slightly less unpredictable, exciting specimen.  Still, watching Jo in full flow on a grass court is a modern tennis treat.  I can't predict he will be the guy to threaten the hegemony of the top 4, but I think he'll provide us with another entertaining, close-but-no-cigar sort of a year.

#7 - Juan Martin Del Potro (ARG)

It has been a long...LONG...road back for Delpo.  Losing most of the 2010 season to a right arm injury, the progression up the rankings since his return in 2011 has seemed at times a little lacklustre.  However, in 2012 he quickly regained the top 10, and ended the season at 7.  Perhaps more importantly, there has been a growing sense that his game and his belief is returning to the levels he found in 2009, when he lifted that maiden Grand Slam - and now it seems at least possible that he can add to that solo outing.  

Del Potro vs Federer is one of the tales of 2012 - which started with a convincing Federer win in the QF of the Australian Open, and another soon after in the Rotterdam final.  Following a title in Marseille, Delpo fell again to the Fed in Dubai in the SFs, but a close 76 76 loss for the Argentinian suggested he was getting more comfortable in these highest matchups.  He lost to Roger again in Indian Wells, fell to Berdych in the SF of Madrid in 2 tiebreaks, but at Roland Garros in the QF, Delpo went two sets up on Federer before a heavy schedule and some battles en route to that round, including revenge on Berdych, saw the big man run out of gas, and lose the next three sets pretty quickly.  Still, it was another sign of progress.  At Wimbledon, Delpo finally showed some signs of coming to grips with the green, falling to Ferrer in R4.  However, at the Olympics 4 weeks later, the Argentinian did his nation proud, battling to a 36 76 1917 loss against, AGAIN, Federer, but rebounding brilliantly to dismiss Novak Djokovic 75 64 and capture the Bronze in mens singles.  Novak found some handy revenge in the US Open QF, though, beating Delpo in straight sets.  Undeterred, Juan Martin finished the season strongly, with a win in Vienna, and then a long-awaited win over Roger Federer in the final in Basel, to lift that title too.  He beat Roger again at the O2 arena in the World Tour Finals RR stages, before falling to Djokovic in 3 sets in the SF.

Del Potro, and indeed his supporters, have to be heartened by the way 2012 unfolded, and he must take into 2013 the growing belief that he has the tools smash open the Big 4 and force the tennisocracy to coin a new term for the world's best group of players.  Out of all the players, Delpo is the most likely to do so - he's done it before, and was unable to reap the benefit, cruelly stopped by injury almost immediately.  Maybe 2013 will be kinder to him than 2010 was in that regard.  His forehand is massive, yet a safer shot than you might expect, with more spin and less tendency to aim for the line than some of his rivals.  The backhand is a strong backup, and he moves surprisingly well for a big man.  The serve is still not as effective as it could be, for his height, but at least it rarely hampers him.  I do not predict a Grand Slam for Delpo in the coming season, though I wouldn't be stunned if he pulled one off, but I suspect he will be deep in the second week nearly every time, and anyone in his quarter of the draw will do well not to assume the SF berth is theirs. They will have to earn it the hardest way.  Also, look out for him to really make a challenge on the grass at Wimbledon.  It felt like the big man put the pieces in place on that surface at last, and should be ready to really challenge there from now on.

I do predict watching Delpo's story unfold will be one of the fascinating tennis stories of 2013, so you'd be well advised to watch as much of him as you can.

#6 - Tomas Berdych (CZE)

Currently sitting at his career high ranking of 6, one higher than where he started the year, Berdych has found a lot of consistency in his 2012 results - something that had previously held him back.  Playing an integral part in the Czech Republic's Davis Cup win has no doubt elevated the season in Berdych's mind to a very memorable one.  Yet on tour and at the slams, it was the consistency that shines through, rather than memorable wins.  

He started the season strongly, losing to Rafa in the Australian Open QF, and won Montpellier.  March was solid rather than spectacular, the losses to Almagro and Dimitrov in Indian Wells and Miami somewhat surprising, but his clay season was excellent, SF in Monte Carlo, losing to Nole, but beating Murray, a tough 3 set loss to Federer in the Madrid final, and QFs of Rome, before losing to Del Potro in the fourth round at Roland Garros.  The real blot on the copybook was the R1 loss to everyone's favourite nutjob, Ernests Gulbis, in three straight tiebreak sets.  Gulbis was on one of his rare 'on fire' days but even so, that was a shocker, and he followed it up with a loss to Darcis at the Olympics in R1.  It seemed like the season was starting to unravel, but he pulled it back together quickly, reaching the final of Winston-Salem, and then beating Federer in the US Open QF, before losing to Murray in a tricky SF in tough conditions.  He added a SF in Shanghai, and won the Stockholm tournament, beating Tsonga, and beat him again at the World Tour Finals, ultimately losing to Murray and Djokovic to keep him out of the semis.  In the Davis Cup final he battled to a 5 set win over Almagro, and though he lost to Ferrer, Stepanek won the deciding rubber to hand the Czechs the cup.

Overall, a very good year then - but I suspect Tomas would have been wanting to get to another slam final, and be more competitive against the big 4.  He scored a win over Murray on clay, and beat Federer at the US Open, but he took many more licks than he handed out against this group, and was rarely competitive against Djokovic.  Additionally, he showed himself vulnerable against Del Potro and Ferrer at times.

Tomas should come into 2013 riding a wave of confidence, with the Davis Cup triumph on the slate - but can he capitalise on it?  His power is awesome, and he can make the game look brutally easy sometimes, exposing space on the court to power the ball into, and picking off at the net anything weak that comes back.  Yet his game is inherently risky, and while the desire to control his own destiny is admirable, at times it leads him into impetuous decisions, especially down the line, on big points.  Additionally, there's really not much of a B game there - either it works, or he goes home.  Given this, I can't quite picture him as the guy who cracks the conundrum of the top 4, or wins a Grand Slam -  I just feel too many things have to work in his favour - this assumes all involved have a healthy season.  I do, however, predict that Berdych will be worthy opposition to his fellow top 10 players, and won't be dismissed easily.  As top 5 gatecrashers, between him and Delpo, I would give JMDP the edge, though.

What will 2013 Bring? Part 4 - ATP #11-20

With 2012 over and 2013 rushing towards us, I'm reviewing the season of the top 50 ATP and WTA players, and notable others, and making an informed guess (quiet at the back) at what 2013 is likely to bring.

Next stop is the players ranked between 11 and 20 in the current rankings...

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#20 - Phillip Kohlschreiber (GER)

Kohli started 2012 ranked 43, ended it ranked 20, and had a career high of 16 back in July.  He booked a Wimbledon QF, beating Nadal-killa Rosol en route with some superb tennis, won a title in Munich and reached another final in Kitzbuhel.  Yet his participation in Kitzbuhel on clay right on the eve of the Olympics raised some eyebrows, which disappeared in peoples' hairlines when he subsequently withdrew from the Olympics at the last minute, citing a nagging leg injury, even though he had played right through to the final.  This ultimately led to a dispute with the German tennis authorities and Kohlschreiber declining further Davis Cup participation as a result.  At this stage of his career, Phillip is unlikely to be knocking on any top 10 doors - if he wanted to try, some better Masters 1000 results to go with his good year at the slams would be a good starting point.  However, I suspect Herr Kohlschreiber will hang around between 20 and 35 in the rankings in 2013.  At 29, it maybe feels too late to expect something bigger.

#19 - Kei Nishikori (JPN)

It feels like Kei Nishikori has been around forever.  After announcing himself as an 18 year old, winning his first tour title at Delray Beach, beating James Blake in the final, Kei had a couple of somewhat fallow years, with injury and other struggles keeping him back.  In 2011 he began to climb up the rankings steadily and he started 2012 ranked 25.  He ended 2012 ranked 19, with a career high of 15 coming off the back off becoming the first Japanese winner of their home tournament in Tokyo, a tremendous achievement.  He also impressed back in Australia, with a win over Tsonga en route to the QF, where he fell to Andy Murray.  In 2013 Kei is definitely capable of pushing towards the top 10.  He likes a good fight and he is mentally tough enough to win his share of them.  His game is strong, and he is showing greater willingness to take the ball on, especially down the line off both wings.  He is a great mover on the court and is very tough to put the ball past.  The issue, as it has been all along, is his conditioning and fitness.  He has tended to look a bit fragile in the past but he has been working hard in this area.  He does, however seem more prone to injury than most - 2012 saw another 2 month break between Barcelona and Wimbledon, and a nagging leg injury bothered him in the Asian swing, so he needs a full, strong season and a sensible schedule.  If that works out for him, he could prove a big handful this coming season.

#18 - Alexandr Dolgopolov (UKR)

2012 was a turbulent year for Dolgo - but why would you expect anything different?  With an unorthodox style that refuses to fit the mould, predictability is never likely to be on the menu.  Indeed, over half Dolgopolov's 2012 points come from just 4 events - a QF in the Madrid 1000, winning Washington, reaching the final in Valencia, and the final in Brisbane.  The rest of the year was fairly unremarkable.  Starting the year at 15 and ending it at 18, credit is due to the Ukrainian for holding his position in the pecking order, although he hasn't made any further advances - he briefly hit a career high of 13 back in January following the Brisbane final but top 10 feels quite a mountain climb away.  With continued problems from Gilbert's Syndrome, a liver condition that can cause him severe fatigue, and a split from long-time coach Jack Reader, off-court wasn't lacking in drama, either.  Given his limitations - health, and unorthodox skills that are too inconsistent to hurt the best for long enough, I can't see him climbing higher than he has already, unless he goes on a major tear at a high ranking event.  He may hold his own in the top 20 in 2013 but that's about the best I would expect - there's no sense that he knows how to kick on further.

#17 - Stanislas Wawrinka (SUI)

Stan the Man clearly started 2012 as he meant to finish it - ranked 17.  Another solid, if unspectacular year for the man who dutifully carries the burden of being called the Swiss #2.  A couple slam fourth rounds, a SF in Cincy, QF Monte Carlo, and a few more SFs at the lower levels round out his year - rarely performed terribly, but when the bigger guns showed up, he vacated the field.  He had Federer on the ropes in Shanghai but blew his chance, lost the second set, and then the third at love - everyone, including him it seems, knew the moment had gone.  We've seen similar against Nole - it's a bit of a theme for Wawrinka, who has never been quite able to consistently master holding his nerve when the stakes are highest.  It's a shame, because his backhand is a stunning shot, a more stylish one-hander than his fellow countryman.  Stan spent time in the top 10 a few years back but it does feel like 11-20 is more his speed, and all other things being equal, I suspect he'll hang around there in 2013 too.  He makes a great living, hanging in the shadow of Federer, and at this point in his career,  I suspect he's made his peace with that not being likely to change, even if he is a bit more critical of Roger than in times past.

#16 - Gilles Simon (FRA)

Gillou is another player who largely held his own in 2012 compared to 2011, but made no great leap forward.  Starting the year ranked 12, he ended at 16, and never fell below 20.  His ranking mainly held up due to SFs at the 1000s in Paris and Monte Carlo, and a tour title in Bucharest.  Simon has not added much to his game as the years have gone by - content to rally, junkball, and occasionally up the attack as a surprise tactic, players know what they will get from him - they will have to work hard, perhaps, but he can be hit through eventually.  With his slight build and average height, Gilles was never going to be a powerhouse, anyway.  The French players have enjoyed colonising the spots between 11 and 20 in the past several years, and Simon seems another one who is good enough to get that high but not consistently higher, spell in the top 10 in 2009 notwithstanding.  'Expect more of the same' is a bit of a boring prediction, but it's all I have to work with here.

#15 - Marin Cilic (CRO)

What's the deal with this guy, anyway?  He came along several years ago, looked like a worthy successor to the likes of Ivanisevic and Ljubicic and Ancic, got to #9 in 2010, but it's felt like he's stalled for the last few years now.  He began 2012 at 21 and improved to 15 over the year, but at 24, I think many expected him to have done a bit more by now,  Coach Bob Brett has said Cilic would take a few years to fully come into his own - but that was a few years ago now.  So is this it?  If so, I think many would be disappointed - it seems like he is capable of more than this.  Then again, given his choke against Murray in the US Open QF, leading a set and *5-1, perhaps he's not destined to do more than make the odd appearance in these big matches and ensure that bigger names book their appointed spots in the semis and the finals.  Who knows.  In any case, 2012 was hardly bad for Marin - 2 titles - Umag and Queens (the beneficiary of Nalbandian's legendary kick that was felt around the world), other SFs and QFs.  But, to harp on a theme, it feels like it should be better.  Will 2013 prove to be?  I'd like to predict so, but I wouldn't do so with any confidence.  I've done so before with him, and once bitten, twice shy.

#14 - John Isner (USA)

Although Big John started ranked 18, he quickly got up to the top 10 and spent most of the season at or around that mark, with a high of 9.  A solid year, with a notable scalping of Roger Federer in Davis Cup, 2 more tour titles, and a final in Indian Wells.  However, he had a poor year in the slams with R3 the best mark.  Given his R2 exit at Roland Garros in an 18-16 fifth set reversal to Paul-Henri Mathieu, it's probably best to forget quickly the silly talk back in April that had Isner winning the clay court Grand Slam.  Indeed, Isner rolling up flat at the Slams after performing relatively well on the tour was a recurring theme in 2012, and his scheduling is something he needs to sort out for the coming season, if he wishes to kick on into the top 10.  There's also just a feeling that, for all the improvements, his backhand is still a bit too flaky, and if he finds himself up against a good returner, who can get a read on the serve, then he's in a lot of trouble.  I can see Isner spending more time in the top 10 next year, but I'm still not sure he's a mainstay.

#13 - Milos Raonic (CAN)

After bursting onto the scene in a big way in early 2011, Milos had a lot to prove, and a lot to defend, in 2012.  That he was able to do so suggests he is one of the game's ones to watch in the next couple of years.  Starting 2012 at 31, he ended at a career high of 13, having defending his title in San Jose, added one in Chennai, and recorded wins over Tipsarevic, Berdych, and Murray twice throughout the season.  The serve is massive, the ground game is better than you might expect, and getting better, and he's showing more willingness to get up the court behind a strong play and finish at the net.  The concern is that he can be a bit brittle mentally - when big moments come, he can get very tight and make poor tactical decisions.  Still, he is only 21, and has gained a lot of experience over the last two seasons.  In 2013, it's time to take the next step, crack the top 10, and dare the rest to displace him.  This should be achievable, and the rest will struggle to dislodge him, I believe.

#12 - Juan Monaco (ARG)

Pico finally cracked a career milestone in 2012, breaking into the top 10 for a while.  This looked pretty unlikely after he fell and injured his ankle in Monte Carlo, but he was able to recover quickly and push on, finally achieving the mark in July.  He started the year at 26 and ended at 12, so by any standards, it was a very good year for the Argentinian.  A SF in Miami, R16 at Roland Garros, a win at the 500 in Hamburg, and more titles in Kuala Lumpur, Houston and Vina del Mar make this a career year for the 28 year old - one I suspect he will struggle to repeat in 2013.  Alas, I expect the likeable workhorse to side back towards 20 as the season progresses - wouldn't mind being proved wrong though.

#11 - Nicolas Almagro (ESP)

Nico has had a remarkably consistent year, beginning 2012 ranked 10, and ending it at 11.  He posted a QF at Roland Garros, a SF in Hamburg, and won titles in Nice and Sao Paulo.  Beyond that, he was solid everywhere, posting only 1 R1 or equivalent loss, in Tokyo.  Better on hardcourt than he used to be, yet Almagro has struggled to make an significant step up, and I'm reluctant to predict one at this stage - he seems happiest on the Golden Swing in South America, does averagely well at the spring clay events in Europe, and again after Wimbledon, but he is too mentally brittle to dominate these event like he should.  I suspect he will slip back slightly in 2013, but look to him to add a few more clay titles and give some top guys a short headache here and there, before making his own head hurt more.  It's what he does best.

What will 2013 Bring? Part 3 - ATP #21-30

With 2012 over and 2013 rushing towards us, I'm reviewing the season of the top 50 ATP and WTA players, and notable others, and making an informed guess (quiet at the back) at what 2013 is likely to bring.

Next stop: ATP #21-30

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#30 - Martin Klizan (SVK)

A breakthrough year for the talented Slovakian.  Still young at 23, he made huge strides into the ATP tour's upper echelons, starting the year at 117 and finishing at 30, with a first career title in St Petersburg en route, and a very useful run to the fourth round at the US Open.  It's quite a turnaround from losing fairly ignominiously in the fifth rubber of a Davis Cup tie to an unfancied Brit.  Watching Klizan in 2013 should prove interesting, to see how he handles the sophomore pressures, and whether he can kick on towards the top 20.  For me, he might be top 20 material, but top 10?  I have my doubts at this point, but 2013 should provide some more useful evidence as he plays a full schedule of Slams and Masters 1000 events.  He knocked over Tsonga at the US Open but can he pull off these kinds of upsets more regularly - and how will he cope with becoming the hunted?  Time will tell.

#29 - Jurgen Melzer (AUT)

Being over 30 in tennis doesn't necessarily seem to be the barrier it once was,  but when you have 13 years of pro tennis in the experience bank, it's likely that making improvements and climbing the rankings gets harder and harder.  For Melzer, 2012 was fairly static, climbing from 33 in January to 29 by the end of the season.  A somewhat unspectacular year overall, with the exception being the stellar run to the Memphis 500 title in February, where he was at his formidable best on the slick indoor surface, using great play and clever court smarts to engineer wins over Isner, Stepanek and Raonic en route to the trophy.  A run to the SF in Valencia remains the only other decent high point.  A year where Melzer won a match, lost a match, won a match, lost a match most of the time.  This helps maintain the ranking but is not good for social climbing.  The now-married Mr Melzer, who took the hand of his paramour Ms Benesova a few months back, is likely to have another fairly solid year in 2013 in both singles and doubles, but I forecast his ranking slips back some.

#28 - Florian Mayer (GER)

Funky Flo plied his trade with a less success than in 2012 than in 2011, but it was hardly a terrible year - he started at 23 and ended at 28, and enjoyed a Wimbledon QF appearance, falling comfortably to Novak Djokovic.  He made a SF in Beijing too, where he also took a beating by Djokovic.  Other than that, he consistently won a round or 2 throughout the year before falling to someone he probably should.  Few great upsets to his credit, but few to his debit too.  At 29, this seems to be Mayer's modus operandi - solid, occasionally dangerous, but rarely a big threat to the very best.  Expect more of the same in 2013 and enjoy that funky forehand every chance you get.

#27 - Mardy Fish (USA)

For Mardy Fish, 2012 was worrying - in more than tennis terms.  His ranking slid from 8 to 27 over the course of the year, which was punctuated by 2 prolonged absences from the game due a troubling heart condition, one between Houston and Wimbledon and the other post-US Open.  When he could play, Fish has been playing some of the best tennis of his career, continuing where he left off in 2011.  Unfortunately, he hasn't played since pulling out of the US Open with a recurrence of the health concerns, and these are set to disrupt his 2013 too, with a withdrawal from Australia already confirmed.  No predictions, then, just best wishes to Mardy and the hope he is able to overcome these health worries and return to tennis in full health and fitness.

#26 - Jerzy Janowicz (POL)

Jerzy Janowicz was 2012's thunderbolt - a late late Raonic-style emergence at the Paris Indoors.  Janowicz started the year ranked 221 and playing futures in Great Britain.  By November he was beating the US Open champion, playing a Masters 1000 final and winding up the year ranked 26.  Meteoric has nothing on this lanky Lodz-ite.  He's tall, he has a massive serve, he moves surprisingly well, his dropshot is astonishingly dangerous, and he seems to have calmed down his high-strung emotions - at least during matches.  That may be the key to his sudden emergence - the ability to cope better with match situations and keep his weapons firing.  As a tennis fan, it was humbling and moving to see how much his success meant to him, as he starkly explained how much the money would help, having missed Australia in 2012 because he simply couldn't afford the trip.  So what next?  Well, he's earned a pass into all the major events of 2013, Australia included, he can afford the ticket this time.  Question is, can he handle the pressure, put on him by himself and from external sources?  People will expect big things now, and he may expect them himself.  Is he a one-hit wonder?  I doubt it - but I forecast a somewhat bumpy ride in 2013.  There may be some highs, but expect some "inexplicable" losses too.  He's got to find his feet, and he's now got a big target on his back - an emergence like this is often just a signal to the tour that there's fresh meat on the field of battle.  Watching him deal with this is going to be fascinating, tennis fans should stayed tuned closely to this story.

#25 - Mikhail Youzhny (RUS)

Mischa modestly improved his ranking in 2012, from 35 to 25, but the highlights were sparse.  A Wimbledon QF, losing to Roger Federer, and winning the Zagreb 250 in February catch the eye among a season of win one, lose one - he posted a 33-21 overall.  Indeed, his most memorable moment might have been using his racquet to write "Sorri" on the clay during the drubbing David Ferrer was dishing out to him at Roland Garros.  Famous for trying to trepan his own skull with his racquet, Youzhny is not lacking in entertainment value, at least.  Youzhny cracked the top 10 a couple of years back, but I fear the best is behind him and there's a slight going through the motions now.  I'm not sure what it is he's still trying to achieve, but I predict his ranking will slip back to the 40 region by the end of next year.  He'll have moments of danger, but whether they'll be to himself or his opponents is debatable.

#24 - Fernando Verdasco (ESP)

Off the top of my head, I can't remember a single notable thing Fernando Verdasco did on the tennis court in 2012, beyond beating Nadal on the infamous smurfturf of Madrid.  Why so blue, Rafa?  I do remember Fer experimenting with various configurations of hair and facial hair, with no more success than he experienced on the tennis court.  Verdasco ended 2012 exactly where he started it, at 24, and this serves as a useful summary of his year - no strides forward, but at least he stopped the backward slide that comprised 2011.  Hard to believe he was in the top 10, Aussie Open SF and giving Nadal all sorts of trouble a couple of years back.  He showed what talent he did have back then, when paired with hard work, but in 2012 the application and focus just did not seem to be there much at all.  Off season evidence suggests he's training hard, but we'll see if that means 2013 sees a march back up the rankings.  He's a solid top 20 player, he doesn't have too many years left in his career, and he needs to stop wasting time and make more of what he's got.  Let's see if he can in 2013.  I'm not convinced.

#23 - Andreas Seppi (ITA)

It's been another career year for Seppi, building on the title in 2011 with 2 titles out of 4 finals in 2012, on hard, grass and clay - he's versatile.  He's moved up from 38 to 23 in the rankings over the year, hitting a best-ever 22.  A good, unspectacular player, who doesn't tend to beat himself, Seppi nevertheless tends to lose to who he should lose to - he rarely threatens the very best players for long, and often loses to them comfortably - a 5 set epic loss to Djokovic at RG this year is a notable exception to this trend.  Looking into my crystal ball, I predict a fairly solid but less successful year for Seppi in 2013, and he'll probably slide back in the rankings a tad.  Not too far if he stays free of injury - the opponent that stalks all players - but I can't see him making so many finals in 2013 so the points will be tough to defend.

#22 - Sam Querrey (USA)

For Querrey, 2012 was about rebuilding his ranking from the injury layoff caused by falling through a glass table in 2011 and slashing open his arm.  From 93 to 22, not far from his career high of 27.  He had a decent summer, making 3 SFs and winning a title in Los Angeles (unfortunately, the last edition of this event), and he made the QFs of the Paris Indoors.  So he's pretty much back to his best.  The big question is, can his best get better or is this it?  He's at his physical peak.  He has a great base to build from in 2013.  His game has improved in some areas over the last few years.  Is a solid spot in the top 20 or 15 possible?  I think it is, but I do worry about his temperament.  At times he has got tired of the demands of the tour and his focus has not been what it needs to be.  Unless he has resolved that, there's no way he can cope with the rigours of holding on to a top 20 ranking.  It will be interesting to watch.

#21 - Tommy Haas (GER) 

What a legend this guy is.  Like him or loath him, but respect how he keeps coming back for more, no matter what time or injury throws at him.  Now 34, and a career injury list longer than the credits of a Lord of the Rings film, he converted a 205 ranking in January 2012 to a 22 by year end, when many of his peers would have taken it as a sign that it's time to pack the racquets away.  Highlights?  Many, though perhaps the biggest was beating Roger Federer to win Halle.  Not bad.  So what does 2013 bring?  More success, I think, and no reason he can't get back into the top 20 - he has the game - if - and it's a big IF - he can stay healthy.  And that is the great question.  Will his body even let him continue to perform the way he did in 2012?  We should all hope so.  Haas brings a certain Ich weiß nicht to the tour, we should enjoy him while we still can.